***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2020.-15.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 3.5 4.6 15.0 114.3 67.6 58.6 1.8 2.9 4.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 3.6 4.4 12.6 102.1 63.2 56.2 1.5 2.8 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 5.9 8.5 14.5 114.2 67.3 58.5 2.2 4.6 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 7.9 7.8 13.0 90.0 57.7 50.2 3.8 6.4 9.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 5.9 7.0 15.2 104.9 63.2 55.2 2.4 4.6 7.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 5.8 5.7 13.2 93.1 57.2 50.6 2.5 4.6 7.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 3.3 4.0 12.6 103.8 63.9 56.7 1.7 2.8 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 11.0 11.5 15.5 96.9 58.6 53.5 5.7 9.3 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 6.2 7.9 15.0 108.0 64.5 56.6 2.6 5.0 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 7.8 9.7 17.2 107.3 63.9 57.1 3.2 6.2 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 8.0 8.4 13.9 94.6 58.6 52.6 3.0 6.2 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 6.2 6.4 13.3 95.5 58.4 53.4 3.0 5.0 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 6.9 7.6 15.4 100.7 61.0 55.2 3.0 5.4 8.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 8.3 11.6 18.2 110.9 66.0 59.3 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.1 5.5 9.7 80.1 55.5 47.4 2.2 4.5 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 6.5 6.7 13.5 94.4 58.7 53.0 2.9 5.2 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 3.3 3.9 11.6 97.6 61.8 55.0 1.6 2.8 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 7.1 9.5 18.6 113.1 66.4 59.4 3.0 5.7 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 4.6 5.7 13.2 105.0 64.1 57.0 1.9 3.6 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 5.6 5.7 18.1 96.8 58.1 53.0 2.5 4.5 7.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 5.7 7.6 15.0 111.3 66.1 57.5 2.3 4.5 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 3.1 3.6 12.4 98.5 62.0 56.0 1.3 2.5 4.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 4.5 6.3 14.3 110.3 66.0 58.6 1.8 3.7 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 7.7 11.2 16.9 113.3 66.8 59.5 3.0 6.3 11.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 4.9 6.4 16.4 110.2 66.0 57.5 2.0 3.8 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 4.6 4.5 12.8 94.5 57.5 50.9 1.9 3.6 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 4.9 6.7 15.8 114.0 67.5 58.8 2.3 4.0 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 6.4 6.0 11.5 86.0 56.6 49.6 2.6 4.8 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 10.6 13.7 18.7 110.0 65.0 58.7 4.3 8.5 14.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 3.4 4.4 13.2 107.9 65.2 57.5 1.4 2.7 4.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------