***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.03.2020.-29.03.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 3.4 8.0 10.7 84.4 56.1 44.4 3.6 6.7 10.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.9 7.8 10.7 99.1 62.0 46.7 3.0 5.4 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.0 9.3 11.2 89.4 58.4 45.7 3.8 7.2 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.3 9.6 13.1 86.7 58.3 45.1 4.0 7.4 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 9.6 8.6 12.0 81.9 55.7 44.4 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 4.3 10.3 14.4 94.7 61.0 48.5 3.9 7.3 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 2.4 7.2 10.3 96.5 61.0 46.4 2.7 5.0 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.8 16.0 13.3 87.3 57.7 46.7 7.6 13.0 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.6 7.8 12.4 82.6 55.2 44.6 3.1 6.4 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 4.5 9.9 13.6 86.4 57.2 46.4 4.0 7.7 13.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.5 9.8 11.9 85.2 57.4 45.3 3.9 7.7 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.8 10.3 12.1 88.3 58.1 46.2 4.7 8.1 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 5.6 11.8 13.4 89.5 59.1 46.6 5.4 9.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 5.7 13.3 14.5 88.9 57.6 46.3 5.6 10.4 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.2 8.9 13.2 90.3 60.8 45.1 2.9 6.0 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 9.8 9.7 12.9 89.2 59.0 46.5 3.8 7.3 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 2.5 8.2 10.1 95.4 60.8 45.1 2.6 5.4 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.7 14.7 88.1 57.3 47.4 5.1 8.1 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 3.2 9.1 11.0 97.6 61.5 47.0 3.0 6.1 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.1 10.2 15.9 86.0 56.8 47.3 4.7 8.3 13.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 9.6 8.7 11.5 83.8 56.0 44.6 3.9 7.1 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 3.4 8.7 10.6 93.1 59.7 44.6 3.6 6.6 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.1 9.7 11.4 93.0 59.6 46.7 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.2 10.9 13.5 87.4 57.0 45.9 5.1 8.9 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.3 8.6 11.8 81.9 55.0 43.9 3.9 7.4 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.4 8.1 12.6 84.9 56.9 44.2 3.3 6.4 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.2 7.3 11.1 83.3 55.2 44.1 3.1 6.1 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.7 7.0 13.5 90.7 60.4 46.3 2.3 4.8 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.8 14.8 15.3 88.6 57.5 48.0 7.3 12.1 18.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 2.7 7.4 10.8 95.9 60.8 46.4 2.7 5.3 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------