***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2020.-05.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 2.2 4.6 11.4 80.8 53.2 43.3 1.9 4.0 7.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 2.6 5.3 9.8 77.8 51.9 41.4 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.0 6.9 11.5 83.4 54.9 44.4 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 5.3 10.7 13.4 84.6 56.0 44.6 4.9 8.9 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.8 6.8 12.9 83.3 55.3 45.1 2.7 5.6 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.6 7.9 14.6 93.2 58.9 48.4 3.3 6.0 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.1 4.6 9.9 79.1 52.5 42.3 2.0 4.1 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 11.1 10.9 14.3 92.3 58.5 48.5 3.9 8.1 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 2.5 5.5 13.6 85.1 55.8 45.2 2.2 4.4 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 8.0 7.2 14.5 86.9 56.3 46.7 2.9 5.8 9.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 2.6 5.9 12.4 85.3 56.2 45.6 2.2 4.6 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.7 7.6 12.7 91.3 58.6 48.0 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 8.2 7.5 13.3 84.5 55.0 46.1 3.5 6.4 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 8.0 6.7 14.4 80.8 53.5 44.4 3.2 6.0 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 4.2 12.1 14.1 95.7 61.2 44.1 4.3 8.5 14.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 7.1 6.3 12.6 84.2 55.3 45.5 3.0 5.4 8.7 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.4 4.5 9.5 76.3 51.8 40.8 2.2 4.3 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 2.5 5.3 15.6 89.4 57.0 47.7 2.2 4.3 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 2.4 4.7 10.0 76.7 51.8 41.6 2.3 4.4 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.0 16.6 87.1 55.6 47.5 4.0 6.8 10.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 2.7 6.0 12.7 85.0 55.9 44.9 2.3 4.8 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 2.5 4.7 9.9 74.1 51.5 40.9 2.3 4.4 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 7.0 5.6 10.5 75.6 51.8 41.9 2.8 5.3 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 7.7 7.2 14.5 89.1 57.4 46.4 3.0 5.7 9.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.4 6.8 12.8 80.9 53.5 43.5 3.3 6.0 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 7.8 7.6 13.3 90.2 57.8 47.2 3.0 5.9 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 2.4 5.0 11.8 79.6 52.6 42.9 2.3 4.6 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.7 9.4 13.7 91.1 58.7 45.1 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 11.9 10.9 16.0 88.7 56.4 47.7 4.9 8.9 14.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.5 5.0 10.2 78.8 52.3 42.2 2.5 4.6 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------