***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2020.-05.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 28.7 27.1 50.6 97.3 55.1 50.2 17.6 24.7 32.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 29.1 26.7 45.6 96.9 54.7 49.6 16.0 24.1 33.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 40.2 40.2 52.5 101.6 58.2 52.4 23.7 34.3 46.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 44.7 42.4 56.7 95.2 53.4 49.0 32.2 40.7 49.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 38.7 37.2 56.9 97.3 54.5 50.3 26.4 34.9 44.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 25.9 36.8 59.8 101.3 57.0 51.1 26.1 33.6 41.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 25.8 23.1 44.5 95.9 53.9 49.4 13.3 21.0 30.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 64.7 63.4 60.5 99.4 55.4 51.1 48.7 59.6 71.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 35.9 35.2 58.0 99.0 55.8 51.5 23.4 32.0 41.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 45.5 44.8 62.7 99.9 56.0 51.8 30.6 40.7 52.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 42.6 39.8 54.7 96.4 53.4 49.4 27.4 37.6 49.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 40.6 40.1 54.8 100.3 56.4 51.8 26.4 35.9 46.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 42.5 41.0 59.6 99.5 55.6 50.8 29.9 38.2 47.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 50.6 49.6 65.9 99.9 56.2 51.1 34.5 45.3 57.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 41.0 38.6 52.8 96.9 55.7 49.7 22.9 34.2 48.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 36.8 35.5 55.9 97.6 54.4 49.9 26.0 33.4 41.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 28.0 25.0 43.6 95.3 53.7 48.7 14.9 23.0 32.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 37.0 37.9 67.2 102.7 58.2 53.4 25.3 33.4 42.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 32.9 30.8 47.6 98.0 55.6 50.5 18.1 27.3 38.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 40.6 37.8 71.2 96.7 52.8 49.2 27.2 36.1 46.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 35.5 35.7 55.3 99.8 56.8 51.6 23.0 31.7 41.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 29.2 27.9 47.0 96.7 54.9 49.7 17.8 25.3 34.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 33.4 32.5 51.2 98.6 55.9 51.2 21.8 29.5 38.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 47.7 49.1 63.2 103.5 59.2 53.5 32.7 42.9 54.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 35.5 33.9 57.0 96.4 54.4 49.9 24.2 31.8 40.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 20.1 31.7 56.0 97.9 54.2 48.2 20.7 29.4 39.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 31.8 30.0 53.3 96.8 54.7 49.9 20.0 27.6 36.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 35.5 34.1 55.1 97.3 55.2 49.8 22.9 31.2 40.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 63.3 63.6 69.1 101.7 57.2 52.7 44.0 57.3 72.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 15.8 26.6 47.1 98.0 55.6 50.5 15.6 23.5 33.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------