***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.03.2014.-23.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 9999.0 5.7 4.3 2.4 81.7 77.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 3.5 4.6 4.5 2.6 84.1 80.6 0.2 1.6 2.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 5.9 6.9 3.9 2.1 81.4 77.4 2.6 4.0 5.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 0.6 2.0 1.5 2.1 82.0 77.4 -3.7 -1.9 -0.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 2.4 3.2 1.5 1.9 79.5 75.3 -0.3 0.9 2.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 1.8 2.2 -0.4 1.7 75.2 72.2 -0.7 0.4 1.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 13 87 100 4.0 5.1 4.6 2.7 84.4 80.8 0.5 1.9 3.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 -3.5 -3.1 -0.3 1.4 71.2 68.3 -7.1 -5.3 -3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 3.8 4.6 2.2 2.0 80.3 76.0 0.7 2.1 3.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 3.3 3.6 0.4 1.7 74.1 70.7 0.9 2.0 3.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 3.1 3.4 0.7 1.4 72.7 69.4 0.7 1.8 2.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 1.9 2.2 0.5 1.3 71.8 68.7 -0.6 0.6 1.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 2.7 3.1 0.1 1.5 73.4 70.3 0.4 1.5 2.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 4.2 4.6 2.2 1.8 77.3 73.6 1.6 2.7 3.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 4.0 5.0 2.2 2.3 84.4 79.5 1.1 2.3 3.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 3.7 4.1 0.5 1.5 73.8 70.5 1.1 2.3 3.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 3.9 4.9 4.6 2.7 84.6 81.3 0.8 2.1 3.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 1.3 1.4 -0.3 1.7 71.7 68.7 -0.8 0.2 1.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 3.9 5.0 4.3 2.4 83.6 79.9 0.4 1.9 3.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 -1.3 -1.2 -1.9 1.8 70.1 67.4 -3.8 -2.6 -1.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 3.4 4.2 3.3 2.1 80.8 76.6 0.5 1.7 2.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 3.3 4.3 4.4 2.5 84.1 80.9 0.4 1.6 2.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 3.1 4.0 3.7 2.2 82.4 78.5 0.4 1.6 2.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 3.2 3.6 1.7 1.8 76.0 72.4 0.8 1.9 2.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 3.2 4.2 2.5 2.2 82.3 77.6 0.4 1.6 2.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 2.7 3.2 0.6 1.7 75.4 72.3 0.4 1.5 2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 3.9 5.0 3.6 2.4 82.5 78.1 0.3 1.8 3.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 2.3 3.2 1.8 2.1 81.7 77.3 -0.5 0.7 1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 0.6 0.6 -1.0 1.6 69.5 67.1 -2.7 -1.1 0.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 4.2 5.3 4.4 2.5 83.4 79.7 0.7 2.1 3.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------