***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.03.2014.-06.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 9999.0 6.7 5.7 1.0 63.6 61.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 6.1 5.9 5.5 0.9 63.7 61.3 4.3 5.2 6.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 8.7 8.5 5.4 1.1 64.9 62.4 6.6 7.6 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 2.9 2.6 3.1 1.1 65.4 63.2 0.5 1.6 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 5.0 4.9 3.3 1.1 66.1 63.5 2.7 3.8 4.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 4.0 4.0 1.5 1.2 67.7 65.1 1.8 2.8 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 6.2 6.0 5.5 1.0 63.6 61.3 4.3 5.2 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 -0.9 -1.2 1.6 0.9 63.9 62.1 -3.1 -2.0 -1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 6.0 5.8 3.8 1.2 65.9 63.2 3.9 4.9 5.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 6.0 5.8 2.3 1.1 65.1 63.0 4.0 5.0 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 5.6 5.5 2.9 1.1 67.1 64.4 3.6 4.5 5.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 4.3 4.1 2.4 1.0 65.5 62.8 2.1 3.2 4.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 5.0 4.9 2.0 1.1 67.4 64.4 2.8 3.9 4.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 6.5 6.3 3.8 1.0 64.7 62.5 4.6 5.5 6.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 6.2 5.9 3.5 1.1 65.3 63.2 4.0 5.0 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 6.5 6.3 2.5 1.1 67.2 64.6 4.2 5.3 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 6.2 6.0 5.3 0.9 63.0 60.7 4.5 5.3 6.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 3.3 3.1 1.7 1.1 64.9 63.3 1.6 2.4 3.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 6.2 5.9 5.4 0.9 63.9 61.5 4.1 5.1 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 1.1 0.7 -0.1 0.8 61.3 61.3 -0.9 0.1 1.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 5.9 5.7 4.8 1.1 65.1 62.5 3.7 4.8 5.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 5.4 5.1 5.2 0.8 62.6 60.5 3.6 4.5 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 5.6 5.3 5.0 1.0 64.6 62.1 3.8 4.6 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 5.9 5.8 3.6 1.1 65.9 63.4 3.9 4.8 5.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 6.1 5.8 3.9 1.0 63.9 61.8 4.0 5.0 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 5.1 4.8 2.1 0.9 63.7 61.4 2.9 4.0 4.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 7.1 6.7 4.8 1.0 63.0 60.9 4.4 5.7 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 4.3 4.0 3.3 1.1 65.9 63.8 1.9 3.0 4.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 3.4 3.2 1.2 1.0 64.9 63.7 1.2 2.3 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 6.6 6.3 5.6 1.0 64.0 61.5 4.5 5.5 6.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------