***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.03.2014.-06.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 9999.0 4.3 3.9 1.1 72.4 69.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 3.6 3.9 3.9 1.2 75.2 71.6 1.9 2.7 3.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 5.9 6.1 3.7 1.0 72.9 69.4 4.3 5.1 5.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.1 72.9 70.0 -1.9 -1.0 -0.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 2.6 2.8 1.6 1.1 72.8 69.5 1.1 1.8 2.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 1.8 1.9 -0.3 1.0 70.6 67.7 0.3 1.0 1.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 3.7 4.0 3.9 1.3 75.7 72.2 2.2 2.9 3.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 -3.2 -3.3 -0.3 0.7 65.0 62.8 -5.1 -4.2 -3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 3.7 4.0 2.3 1.2 75.0 70.9 2.2 2.9 3.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 3.6 3.6 0.5 0.9 68.6 65.8 2.3 2.9 3.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 3.3 3.4 1.1 0.9 70.9 67.7 1.9 2.6 3.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 2.1 2.1 0.6 0.7 68.2 65.3 0.6 1.3 2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 2.9 3.0 0.3 0.8 69.4 66.4 1.5 2.2 2.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 4.0 4.1 2.1 0.9 69.3 66.3 2.7 3.4 3.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 3.7 4.0 2.1 1.3 76.2 73.2 2.4 3.0 3.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 3.9 4.1 0.7 0.9 71.0 67.9 2.4 3.2 3.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 3.8 4.1 3.8 1.2 75.2 71.8 2.4 3.0 3.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 1.4 1.3 -0.2 0.8 66.6 64.3 0.2 0.8 1.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 3.6 3.9 3.8 1.1 74.5 70.8 2.0 2.8 3.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 -1.5 -1.4 -2.2 0.5 58.8 58.1 -2.6 -1.8 -1.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 3.4 3.6 3.2 1.1 73.0 69.4 1.9 2.6 3.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 3.1 3.4 3.7 1.2 74.2 70.8 1.7 2.4 3.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 3.2 3.4 3.4 1.0 73.6 69.8 1.6 2.4 3.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 3.3 3.4 1.8 0.9 70.4 67.3 2.0 2.7 3.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 3.5 3.7 2.3 1.0 70.9 67.9 1.9 2.7 3.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 2.4 2.8 0.3 0.7 66.0 63.4 1.4 2.1 2.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 4.0 4.2 3.1 1.1 71.9 68.6 2.2 3.1 3.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 2.0 2.3 1.7 1.2 74.6 71.8 0.7 1.3 1.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 0.2 0.6 -0.9 0.7 64.3 62.4 -0.9 -0.1 0.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 4.0 4.3 4.0 1.2 74.7 71.2 2.4 3.1 3.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------