***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.03.2014.-16.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 9999.0 11.2 10.1 -0.1 48.6 48.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 11.7 11.5 10.4 0.2 52.4 52.4 9.4 11.3 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 12.0 11.0 9.9 -0.4 45.5 46.1 9.6 11.5 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 3.7 2.8 7.2 -0.3 46.7 47.0 1.1 3.2 5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 12.2 10.5 7.6 -1.0 40.2 41.3 9.6 11.5 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 7.2 7.4 4.0 -2.6 25.0 26.6 8.3 10.0 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 11.3 11.2 10.3 0.2 52.7 52.7 9.0 10.9 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 -1.4 -1.2 4.8 -2.2 28.8 30.9 -0.8 0.9 2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 12.1 10.3 8.6 -1.0 40.0 41.1 9.5 11.5 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 9.1 9.5 6.2 -1.8 32.5 34.4 9.5 11.5 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 12.2 9.6 6.9 -1.5 35.1 36.6 9.4 11.3 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 8.3 8.6 5.8 -1.9 30.5 32.4 8.9 10.8 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 9.0 9.2 5.5 -2.3 26.4 28.6 9.9 11.6 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 12.5 10.8 8.6 -1.0 40.3 41.5 9.9 11.9 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 90 10 100 11.0 10.9 9.1 0.2 52.4 52.2 8.4 10.6 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 9.7 10.1 6.4 -1.7 33.2 34.8 10.0 11.8 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 11.0 11.1 10.3 0.4 54.8 54.5 8.7 10.6 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 8.7 8.9 5.3 -2.1 29.9 32.1 9.3 11.3 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 11.6 11.3 10.4 0.1 50.9 50.9 9.2 11.2 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 3.8 3.7 2.5 -2.8 23.2 25.5 4.9 6.8 8.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 12.2 10.8 9.4 -0.8 42.3 43.2 9.7 11.6 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 11.8 11.8 10.3 0.3 53.7 53.5 9.4 11.4 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 12.2 11.5 10.1 -0.2 47.7 48.0 9.8 11.7 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.6 10.3 7.9 -1.4 36.6 38.3 9.9 11.8 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 11.3 10.5 8.6 -0.3 46.7 47.2 8.9 10.9 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 8.7 8.7 4.6 -2.4 24.9 26.7 9.6 11.3 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 11.5 10.9 9.5 -0.2 47.9 48.3 9.2 11.1 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 11.5 10.3 7.7 -0.5 45.4 45.7 8.6 10.9 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 3.9 4.0 4.3 -2.3 27.8 30.1 4.6 6.5 8.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 11.5 11.1 10.4 0.1 51.0 51.1 9.2 11.0 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------