***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.03.2014.-23.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 9999.0 16.9 14.3 2.7 79.5 74.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 14.5 15.8 14.1 2.5 77.7 72.9 10.7 12.6 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 15.3 16.7 14.6 2.8 79.0 73.9 11.0 13.0 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 8.2 10.1 13.0 3.3 82.2 76.7 2.4 4.9 7.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 15.7 17.3 13.2 3.1 80.4 74.9 10.7 13.0 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 14.7 16.5 11.6 3.5 81.8 76.3 9.5 11.8 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 14.3 15.4 13.9 2.4 77.2 72.3 10.4 12.3 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 3.9 5.1 11.6 2.8 77.7 72.4 -0.8 1.4 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 15.3 16.8 13.7 3.0 79.2 73.8 10.6 12.8 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 15.3 16.6 12.4 2.8 77.5 72.2 10.4 12.7 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 15.6 17.0 12.8 3.0 79.5 74.3 10.6 12.8 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 14.9 16.2 12.5 2.9 78.9 73.8 9.6 12.0 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 15.5 17.0 12.0 3.0 79.5 74.2 10.6 12.8 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 15.5 16.5 13.5 2.6 76.1 71.3 11.2 13.2 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 15.9 17.8 13.2 3.4 83.5 78.2 10.2 12.6 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 16.3 17.8 12.5 3.1 80.3 75.1 11.1 13.3 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 13.5 14.4 13.6 2.2 75.8 71.1 10.0 11.7 13.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 14.8 15.7 11.7 2.6 75.2 70.1 10.1 12.3 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 14.7 16.0 14.3 2.6 78.0 73.2 10.8 12.7 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 10.0 10.8 9.1 2.5 74.8 69.1 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 15.4 16.9 14.3 2.9 79.7 74.3 10.8 12.9 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 14.6 15.6 13.9 2.3 75.8 71.3 10.9 12.7 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 15.2 16.4 14.5 2.6 77.8 73.0 11.2 13.1 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 15.2 16.3 13.4 2.7 76.4 71.5 10.8 12.9 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 15.2 16.6 13.0 2.9 80.1 74.6 10.6 12.7 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 15.2 16.8 11.6 3.0 80.2 75.1 10.0 12.3 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 15.0 16.3 13.5 2.7 78.6 73.4 10.6 12.6 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 16.3 18.3 13.3 3.4 83.0 77.5 10.4 12.9 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 9.8 10.7 10.6 2.5 74.4 69.1 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 14.6 15.9 14.3 2.6 78.4 73.5 10.6 12.5 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------