***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.03.2014.-30.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 9999.0 15.7 14.1 1.0 61.8 58.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 13.1 15.7 13.9 0.9 60.4 57.1 13.5 14.9 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 17.1 16.4 14.2 1.1 62.0 58.5 14.0 15.4 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 7.9 8.6 12.5 1.4 64.6 60.5 5.8 7.3 8.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 16.2 16.7 12.8 1.3 63.4 59.8 14.0 15.6 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 15.2 15.9 11.0 1.4 64.3 60.3 12.9 14.5 16.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 13.0 15.4 13.7 0.8 59.7 56.6 13.4 14.7 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 4.1 4.4 11.2 1.0 61.0 57.9 2.0 3.5 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 17.0 16.5 13.2 1.2 62.4 59.1 13.9 15.4 16.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 13.7 16.4 12.0 1.1 60.9 57.9 13.9 15.4 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 16.1 16.6 12.4 1.3 63.3 59.7 13.9 15.4 16.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.8 12.0 1.1 62.2 58.8 13.0 14.7 16.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 16.4 16.9 11.5 1.2 62.6 59.1 14.1 15.7 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 13.9 16.5 13.0 0.8 58.4 56.0 14.2 15.7 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 15.3 16.0 12.8 1.5 66.3 61.6 13.5 14.8 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 16.5 17.2 12.1 1.3 63.9 60.1 14.3 15.9 17.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 12.3 14.5 13.5 0.7 58.2 55.4 12.6 13.9 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 13.1 15.8 11.3 0.8 58.3 55.9 13.4 15.0 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 13.2 15.9 14.1 0.9 60.8 57.4 13.6 15.0 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 7.9 10.5 8.8 0.7 57.9 55.2 8.3 9.8 11.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 17.0 16.5 13.8 1.2 62.6 59.1 13.9 15.4 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 13.2 15.5 13.7 0.6 57.8 55.1 13.4 14.9 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 13.8 16.3 14.1 0.9 60.5 57.4 14.0 15.4 16.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 13.6 16.4 12.9 0.9 59.4 56.8 14.0 15.5 17.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 16.5 15.9 12.6 1.1 62.1 58.5 13.7 15.0 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 13.3 16.1 11.2 1.1 61.9 58.5 13.5 15.1 16.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 16.8 16.0 13.2 0.9 60.8 57.5 13.8 15.1 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 15.7 16.4 12.8 1.5 65.7 61.3 13.6 15.1 16.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.9 10.6 10.2 0.7 57.4 55.1 8.3 9.9 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 16.4 15.7 14.1 0.9 61.1 57.7 13.5 14.8 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------