***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.03.2014.-06.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9999.0 15.2 13.5 1.1 69.0 64.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 45 55 100 14.9 15.1 13.5 1.1 69.3 65.2 13.1 14.0 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 14.7 15.4 13.6 1.1 68.2 64.2 13.4 14.4 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 44 56 100 7.5 7.7 11.6 1.3 69.4 65.7 5.0 6.2 7.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 14.8 15.5 11.9 1.1 66.7 63.2 13.3 14.4 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 13.6 13.9 9.8 0.8 62.1 59.6 12.0 13.1 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 46 54 100 14.6 14.7 13.3 1.1 68.9 64.8 12.8 13.7 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 3.1 3.3 10.1 0.6 60.2 57.7 1.5 2.7 3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 14.6 15.2 12.6 1.0 66.1 62.6 13.2 14.2 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 14.6 15.0 11.0 0.8 61.7 59.0 13.1 14.2 15.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 14.6 15.2 11.5 0.9 64.6 61.5 13.1 14.2 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 13.8 14.3 10.9 0.8 62.1 59.3 12.2 13.4 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 14.8 15.1 10.5 0.7 61.1 58.5 13.2 14.3 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 14.9 15.3 12.4 0.9 63.6 60.5 13.6 14.6 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 44 56 100 14.9 15.3 12.3 1.5 72.2 68.4 12.5 13.7 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 15.1 15.7 11.1 0.9 64.6 61.6 13.5 14.7 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 13.4 14.1 13.2 1.1 68.3 64.4 12.3 13.1 13.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 14.3 14.4 10.3 0.6 58.7 56.6 12.8 13.9 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 46 54 100 14.9 15.1 13.6 1.1 69.1 65.0 13.1 14.0 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.3 9.2 7.7 0.3 55.0 53.5 7.6 8.9 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 14.7 15.4 13.2 1.1 67.1 63.4 13.3 14.4 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 14.2 15.0 13.3 1.0 67.7 63.9 13.2 14.0 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 14.7 15.4 13.6 1.1 68.1 64.2 13.5 14.4 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 14.7 15.1 12.2 0.8 62.8 59.9 13.4 14.4 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 14.2 15.0 12.1 1.1 67.8 64.1 12.9 13.9 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 14.2 14.4 10.0 0.6 59.9 57.6 12.6 13.8 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 14.4 15.2 12.8 1.1 67.7 63.8 13.1 14.1 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 45 55 100 15.2 15.5 11.9 1.3 69.7 66.2 12.7 14.0 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 9.3 9.3 9.2 0.5 57.1 55.3 7.7 8.8 9.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 45 55 100 14.8 15.0 13.6 1.1 69.4 65.3 12.9 13.9 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------