***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.03.2014.-23.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 9999.0 16.2 13.8 148.6 77.6 60.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 11.5 14.2 14.2 147.1 77.4 60.9 2.8 5.6 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 15.8 19.4 14.4 146.0 77.1 59.7 3.6 7.5 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.6 11.8 13.1 113.9 67.3 53.8 5.0 7.8 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.0 15.9 14.4 128.5 72.1 57.1 4.8 8.5 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.4 9.2 14.5 105.2 63.4 53.3 3.1 6.0 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 10.4 12.9 14.0 148.1 77.5 61.5 2.3 4.8 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 9.6 23.4 14.4 118.6 68.8 54.7 9.2 14.8 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.8 15.7 15.3 141.1 75.8 58.7 4.4 7.7 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 6.0 18.6 15.3 127.3 71.7 55.7 5.6 9.9 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.8 16.2 13.0 122.5 70.2 55.9 5.2 9.2 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 11.1 14.9 12.6 118.4 68.9 56.0 4.4 8.2 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 4.7 11.8 13.2 108.3 64.7 53.7 4.5 7.8 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 16.6 18.7 16.8 137.3 75.0 57.6 5.8 9.6 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.2 9.9 10.6 96.5 61.3 49.4 2.8 6.4 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.8 11.0 13.0 112.1 66.4 55.2 3.7 6.7 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 10.7 13.0 13.9 145.5 76.8 60.7 3.1 5.7 9.3 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.8 14.3 17.1 124.7 70.9 54.8 4.5 7.9 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 13.9 17.6 14.6 148.6 77.8 61.0 2.7 6.1 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 11.3 14.6 19.3 118.8 68.8 56.1 5.1 8.7 13.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 12.5 15.0 14.7 147.0 77.3 59.1 4.2 7.1 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 12.2 14.9 14.7 148.0 77.4 62.5 3.2 6.2 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 11.9 14.9 15.3 149.8 78.1 60.9 2.6 5.5 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 6.4 21.1 16.3 137.2 74.7 57.2 6.0 10.6 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 11.3 12.8 15.6 138.4 75.1 60.3 3.1 5.8 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.6 10.1 12.9 105.2 63.8 52.7 3.6 6.6 10.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 10.3 11.9 15.2 144.5 76.7 61.5 2.8 5.3 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.6 7.5 11.2 97.9 61.6 49.5 2.2 4.8 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 8.7 26.5 18.5 126.3 71.4 56.3 8.3 14.5 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 12.4 15.3 14.1 147.5 77.5 60.9 2.4 5.4 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------