***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.03.2014.-30.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 7.8 12.6 94.8 61.2 51.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 8.0 9.3 12.0 102.6 63.9 53.1 3.5 6.2 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.1 9.7 12.3 94.7 60.8 51.4 3.3 6.7 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.9 14.3 92.3 60.3 52.2 5.7 9.7 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.7 14.2 92.6 60.3 52.0 3.3 6.3 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.0 10.1 16.8 92.9 59.7 50.9 4.2 7.6 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.8 8.4 12.3 105.1 65.0 54.0 2.4 5.0 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 14.8 15.6 14.8 91.5 59.6 53.2 6.8 11.9 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 8.4 8.8 13.8 90.7 59.8 51.2 2.9 6.2 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.7 11.1 14.9 91.5 59.5 52.6 4.2 8.1 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 10.5 10.8 13.4 93.7 60.6 52.5 3.9 7.7 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 10.7 11.4 13.3 91.8 60.2 52.5 4.7 8.4 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.9 12.3 15.0 93.1 59.8 51.1 5.4 9.4 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 15.1 16.2 14.7 96.7 60.7 51.9 6.4 11.9 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 4.3 10.5 13.1 87.1 58.9 50.5 3.8 7.7 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.4 9.7 14.2 93.7 60.2 51.3 3.4 6.8 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.7 10.6 11.5 106.0 65.6 53.4 3.2 6.3 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 9.0 9.6 16.5 93.7 59.6 53.4 4.3 7.3 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.0 10.1 11.9 99.8 62.7 51.9 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 10.1 11.7 19.3 99.2 62.0 55.5 4.4 8.1 13.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.6 9.8 12.6 89.5 59.5 50.2 3.5 7.0 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 9.1 11.0 11.9 107.2 65.6 53.6 3.9 6.9 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 9.9 11.0 12.0 96.8 61.5 51.1 4.4 7.8 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 11.3 12.0 14.6 94.1 59.9 52.1 4.9 8.9 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.3 11.2 15.0 96.3 61.2 52.9 4.4 8.0 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.6 9.1 14.1 91.6 60.0 51.7 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.1 10.1 14.6 99.9 62.6 53.1 3.2 6.6 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.4 8.9 13.8 90.2 59.8 50.7 3.1 6.3 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 14.2 16.3 17.8 98.9 61.6 55.1 6.2 11.4 18.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 7.4 8.3 12.3 100.6 63.0 52.7 2.9 5.5 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------