***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.03.2014.-06.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 8.3 10.8 111.3 67.4 53.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.4 8.0 10.0 106.2 65.4 52.3 2.1 4.4 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 6.7 9.7 11.2 115.4 68.4 54.8 1.9 4.6 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 9.4 11.6 12.2 107.3 65.8 51.9 3.7 7.0 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 2.9 9.9 12.1 111.5 67.0 53.5 2.5 5.2 9.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.1 10.3 14.8 113.2 67.0 54.8 3.5 6.2 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 5.8 7.1 9.9 103.8 64.5 52.0 1.9 4.1 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 11.4 14.6 13.7 112.9 67.1 53.6 4.0 8.3 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 5.6 7.5 12.1 113.7 67.6 53.8 2.0 4.0 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 6.6 8.4 13.6 111.1 66.5 54.0 2.5 4.9 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 5.8 7.4 11.7 111.4 66.9 53.5 1.9 4.1 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 2.9 9.0 11.8 113.1 67.4 53.1 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.0 11.0 13.7 116.1 68.2 54.9 3.8 6.5 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 2.9 8.6 13.9 115.8 68.2 55.0 2.6 4.9 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.4 9.9 11.6 104.6 65.5 50.3 2.9 5.9 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.4 8.5 12.4 111.1 66.7 53.7 3.2 5.4 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 6.0 7.7 9.9 110.0 66.8 52.5 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 5.1 6.3 15.5 110.7 66.0 54.3 2.1 3.9 6.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 5.8 7.3 10.3 108.0 65.9 52.0 2.0 4.2 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 7.8 9.6 18.1 113.0 66.7 53.9 3.5 6.0 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 6.1 8.4 11.4 114.5 68.2 54.1 2.0 4.2 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 2.6 7.9 9.9 108.3 66.0 50.8 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 2.3 7.0 11.0 110.7 66.6 51.7 2.0 4.0 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 6.6 8.7 13.6 113.8 67.4 55.2 2.6 5.0 8.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.0 9.5 13.0 111.8 67.2 53.8 2.8 5.4 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 7.7 11.1 13.6 125.7 71.3 57.3 2.9 5.6 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.8 8.4 12.3 111.8 67.4 53.7 2.4 4.8 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 7.4 9.0 11.7 104.1 65.1 51.3 2.9 5.6 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 9.0 11.3 16.3 111.4 66.2 53.8 3.4 6.7 11.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 5.6 7.0 10.3 107.9 65.9 52.3 1.9 3.9 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------