***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.03.2014.-06.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 35.3 43.2 97.2 55.5 50.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 30.6 30.6 41.1 100.1 57.5 52.2 18.7 26.6 35.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 39.7 40.0 44.8 99.7 57.0 51.9 24.2 34.8 47.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 43.9 39.5 47.9 90.3 49.2 45.8 31.5 39.9 49.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 38.0 37.4 51.3 99.4 56.2 51.0 25.4 34.0 43.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 37.3 36.8 61.3 102.0 57.7 52.5 25.3 33.0 41.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 27.7 27.5 40.5 100.1 57.5 52.3 16.2 23.7 32.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 64.1 64.5 56.2 101.1 57.2 52.1 48.0 59.3 71.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 35.5 36.7 52.2 102.4 58.6 53.0 23.5 32.0 41.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 44.4 45.6 57.4 102.4 58.3 53.0 29.4 39.9 51.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 41.7 42.1 49.7 101.1 57.5 52.2 26.7 37.0 48.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 41.3 40.4 48.7 99.5 56.2 51.4 26.3 36.2 47.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 41.6 41.3 55.0 101.2 57.2 52.5 29.8 37.7 46.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 49.4 49.0 55.2 101.4 57.5 52.5 32.0 43.4 56.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 22.9 29.1 42.1 81.9 43.4 41.2 22.5 33.8 47.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 36.4 36.4 52.4 101.0 57.2 52.5 25.3 32.9 41.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 29.6 30.1 39.3 101.5 58.7 52.3 17.9 25.6 34.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 36.7 37.4 63.6 102.6 58.2 53.1 24.6 32.9 42.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 34.5 34.4 42.1 99.9 57.3 52.1 21.1 30.0 40.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 40.1 41.6 72.6 103.6 58.9 54.1 27.0 36.2 46.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 36.0 36.2 47.5 100.5 57.7 52.2 23.0 31.7 41.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 31.8 31.9 40.4 100.6 58.1 52.1 20.6 28.0 36.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 33.6 34.0 45.2 101.3 58.0 52.7 21.7 29.8 38.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 47.3 47.5 55.7 102.2 58.0 52.8 31.5 42.1 53.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 36.3 35.5 51.9 98.5 55.8 51.3 25.1 32.8 41.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 34.2 32.7 51.8 99.1 55.7 51.3 20.7 29.4 39.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 33.3 32.8 48.7 98.8 56.3 51.7 21.8 29.6 38.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 35.3 29.2 45.2 86.3 46.1 43.5 23.0 31.2 40.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 62.2 65.7 68.6 105.9 61.0 55.3 42.6 55.9 71.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 28.9 28.9 41.9 99.5 57.1 52.2 17.1 25.1 34.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------