***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2013.-07.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 3.4 3.0 -0.1 47.3 50.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 2.0 2.6 2.6 -0.3 42.9 46.7 2.1 2.9 3.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.1 2.7 -0.2 45.8 49.2 4.5 5.3 6.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 -0.5 -0.9 0.9 -0.1 48.3 51.0 -1.7 -0.8 0.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 2.3 1.9 1.1 0.0 49.0 51.6 1.3 2.0 2.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 1.4 1.5 -0.4 0.3 58.1 58.0 0.4 1.2 1.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.2 2.8 2.6 -0.2 43.7 47.3 2.4 3.1 3.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 -3.6 -3.7 -0.2 0.2 55.0 56.7 -4.9 -4.0 -3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 3.3 3.1 1.7 0.0 50.1 52.5 2.4 3.1 3.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 3.3 3.1 0.4 0.1 52.0 54.2 2.4 3.0 3.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 3.0 2.7 0.8 0.0 49.6 52.3 2.1 2.7 3.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 1.7 1.6 0.5 0.1 53.7 55.5 0.7 1.4 2.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 2.6 2.5 0.2 0.2 54.0 55.3 1.7 2.3 2.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 3.8 3.2 1.4 -0.3 42.4 47.6 2.9 3.5 4.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 2.5 3.2 1.7 0.1 51.7 53.1 2.5 3.2 3.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 3.6 3.4 0.5 0.1 52.4 54.2 2.6 3.3 4.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 2.4 2.8 2.4 -0.4 39.7 44.7 2.6 3.2 3.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 1.1 1.0 -0.3 0.1 52.5 54.7 0.3 0.9 1.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 2.1 2.7 2.6 -0.3 43.0 46.9 2.2 3.0 3.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 -0.8 -1.2 -1.7 0.6 61.9 61.4 -2.4 -1.7 -1.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 3.1 2.7 2.4 -0.1 48.0 50.9 2.1 2.8 3.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 1.8 2.2 2.4 -0.4 39.4 44.6 1.9 2.6 3.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 2.8 2.3 2.5 -0.2 43.5 47.6 1.8 2.5 3.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 3.1 2.7 1.2 -0.2 45.9 50.0 2.2 2.8 3.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 3.2 2.7 1.7 -0.2 46.3 49.6 2.1 2.8 3.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 2.5 2.5 0.3 0.2 56.0 56.6 1.6 2.3 2.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 3.6 3.1 2.4 -0.1 47.3 50.4 2.4 3.2 4.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 1.7 1.5 1.3 0.1 51.6 53.3 0.8 1.5 2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 0.4 0.3 -0.9 0.2 54.3 56.1 -0.7 0.1 0.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.4 3.1 2.8 -0.2 44.6 48.0 2.6 3.3 4.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------