***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2013.-31.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 9999.0 5.4 4.5 1.0 63.7 61.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 5.0 4.7 4.2 1.0 64.2 62.0 2.6 3.7 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 7.5 7.1 4.3 1.1 65.3 62.7 4.9 6.1 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 1.5 0.9 2.3 0.8 62.1 60.8 -1.1 0.1 1.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 4.8 4.2 2.5 0.9 63.3 61.3 1.8 3.1 4.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 3.8 3.3 0.7 0.9 63.9 61.4 1.0 2.2 3.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 5.1 4.7 4.2 1.0 64.0 61.9 2.8 3.9 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 -1.3 -1.8 1.1 1.1 65.3 62.9 -4.5 -3.1 -1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 5.5 5.0 3.1 1.0 64.8 62.1 2.7 3.9 5.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 5.4 5.0 1.8 1.1 65.4 62.6 2.9 4.0 5.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 5.3 4.7 2.1 0.8 63.0 60.9 2.5 3.7 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 3.9 3.3 1.8 0.9 63.9 61.7 1.0 2.3 3.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 4.8 4.2 1.3 0.8 62.8 60.6 2.0 3.3 4.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 5.4 5.1 3.0 1.1 66.3 63.1 3.1 4.1 5.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 5.2 4.7 2.8 0.8 61.6 60.4 3.1 4.1 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 5.9 5.3 1.8 0.8 62.8 60.7 3.1 4.4 5.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 5.0 4.7 4.1 0.9 63.0 61.1 3.1 4.0 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 2.9 2.6 1.3 1.2 66.4 63.4 0.5 1.6 2.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 5.1 4.7 4.2 1.0 64.6 62.2 2.6 3.8 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 0.5 0.3 -0.4 1.3 67.2 64.6 -2.2 -1.0 0.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 5.3 4.8 3.9 1.1 64.9 62.3 2.5 3.7 4.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 4.4 4.0 4.1 0.9 62.9 60.9 2.2 3.2 4.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 4.6 4.2 4.0 1.1 65.6 62.6 2.2 3.3 4.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 4.9 4.6 2.8 1.1 66.2 63.1 2.5 3.5 4.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 5.5 4.9 3.0 0.9 62.5 61.2 2.7 4.0 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 4.7 4.0 1.3 0.7 61.6 60.3 2.0 3.2 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 6.0 5.3 3.8 1.0 62.6 61.2 3.0 4.4 5.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 3.8 3.2 2.6 0.8 62.3 60.7 1.3 2.4 3.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 2.4 2.1 0.7 1.3 67.2 64.2 -0.4 0.8 2.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 5.6 5.2 4.3 1.0 64.4 62.2 3.1 4.2 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------