***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2013.-07.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 6.2 5.3 0.5 56.3 55.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.7 5.2 0.6 57.9 56.7 4.3 5.3 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 8.2 8.3 5.1 0.6 58.4 57.0 6.7 7.8 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 2.2 2.4 3.3 0.6 59.2 57.3 0.6 1.8 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 4.3 4.6 3.4 0.7 59.5 57.9 2.7 3.9 5.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 3.3 3.6 1.6 0.8 61.3 59.0 1.8 2.9 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 5.8 5.8 5.1 0.5 56.9 55.9 4.5 5.4 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -1.5 -1.2 1.9 0.7 59.8 58.8 -3.0 -1.9 -0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 5.4 5.6 4.0 0.7 58.7 57.4 4.0 5.1 6.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 5.4 5.6 2.6 0.7 59.0 58.1 4.1 5.1 6.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 5.1 5.3 3.0 0.8 60.5 58.9 3.7 4.7 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 3.7 3.8 2.6 0.7 59.2 57.9 2.2 3.3 4.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 4.4 4.6 2.1 0.7 59.1 57.6 3.0 4.0 5.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 6.1 6.1 3.9 0.6 58.1 57.2 4.8 5.7 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 5.6 5.7 3.8 0.5 58.2 56.1 4.2 5.3 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 5.8 6.0 2.6 0.7 60.5 58.6 4.3 5.4 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.8 5.0 0.5 56.5 55.7 4.6 5.5 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 2.8 3.0 1.9 0.7 58.6 58.3 1.8 2.6 3.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.7 5.2 0.6 58.6 57.2 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.9 61.0 60.0 -0.7 0.2 1.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 5.4 5.5 4.8 0.6 58.1 56.7 3.8 4.9 6.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 5.1 5.1 5.1 0.5 57.1 56.1 3.9 4.8 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 5.1 5.2 5.0 0.6 58.9 57.4 3.9 4.8 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 5.4 5.5 3.6 0.6 58.4 57.6 4.1 5.0 6.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 5.5 5.5 3.9 0.5 57.1 55.8 4.0 5.1 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 4.4 4.5 2.1 0.6 58.0 56.7 3.0 4.0 5.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 6.5 6.4 4.7 0.5 56.0 54.9 4.5 5.9 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 3.7 3.9 3.5 0.7 59.7 57.5 2.0 3.2 4.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 2.8 3.0 1.3 0.8 59.5 59.2 1.4 2.4 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.1 6.1 5.2 0.6 57.9 56.6 4.7 5.7 6.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------