***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2013.-17.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 92 8 0 100 9999.0 5.8 6.0 -4.6 8.1 12.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 92 8 0 100 7.9 4.7 5.2 -5.4 4.4 9.0 9.9 11.7 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 92 8 0 100 7.9 5.7 6.0 -4.9 7.4 11.6 10.0 11.9 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 84 16 0 100 -0.5 -0.8 4.7 -3.4 18.3 21.0 1.4 3.5 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 82 18 0 100 8.4 7.6 5.5 -3.7 15.7 18.7 10.0 11.9 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 8.1 8.5 5.2 -1.8 30.6 32.4 8.7 10.4 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 92 8 0 100 7.6 4.4 5.2 -5.3 4.6 9.2 9.5 11.3 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 77 23 0 100 -1.8 -2.2 4.6 -3.2 19.3 21.9 -0.6 1.1 2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 85 15 0 100 8.2 6.9 6.2 -4.1 13.0 16.4 9.9 11.8 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 85 15 0 100 8.1 7.3 5.0 -3.8 15.4 18.4 9.9 11.8 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 82 18 0 100 8.1 7.7 5.7 -3.4 18.0 20.8 9.8 11.7 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 75 25 0 100 7.9 7.6 5.5 -2.9 20.7 23.4 9.2 11.1 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 9.2 9.1 5.9 -2.5 23.3 26.1 10.2 11.9 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 94 6 0 100 8.1 5.5 4.7 -5.5 6.5 10.0 10.3 12.2 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 7.4 6.9 6.4 -3.1 20.0 22.8 8.9 11.0 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 77 23 0 100 9.2 9.1 5.9 -2.9 21.4 24.0 10.5 12.2 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 93 7 0 100 7.1 3.6 4.7 -5.7 3.6 7.9 9.1 10.9 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 91 9 0 100 7.7 6.9 4.1 -4.1 13.7 16.6 9.7 11.6 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 93 7 0 100 7.6 4.3 5.4 -5.4 4.6 9.1 9.7 11.6 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 88 12 0 100 3.4 3.3 2.6 -3.3 18.3 20.5 5.2 7.0 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 89 11 0 100 8.2 6.8 6.3 -4.4 10.8 14.5 10.1 11.9 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 93 7 0 100 7.7 3.7 4.8 -5.8 3.3 7.5 9.8 11.8 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 94 6 0 100 8.1 5.1 5.5 -5.4 5.2 9.5 10.2 12.1 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 93 7 0 100 8.2 6.5 5.1 -4.9 9.2 12.7 10.3 12.1 13.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 90 10 0 100 7.4 6.1 5.2 -4.2 11.7 15.1 9.3 11.2 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 9.5 9.5 5.7 -1.9 29.0 31.2 10.0 11.6 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 92 8 0 100 7.7 5.9 5.5 -4.5 8.9 12.8 9.6 11.4 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 7.4 7.2 5.7 -3.0 21.3 23.9 9.0 11.3 13.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 91 9 0 100 3.0 2.3 3.4 -4.0 14.5 17.1 5.0 6.8 8.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 92 8 0 100 7.7 4.8 5.6 -5.2 5.3 10.0 9.6 11.4 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------