***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2013.-24.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 11.8 11.8 0.0 50.4 52.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 10.7 12.8 11.6 0.0 50.2 52.9 11.0 12.8 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 11.0 13.5 12.2 0.2 52.1 54.1 11.4 13.3 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 2.3 5.3 10.2 0.0 50.3 52.5 2.8 5.3 7.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 10.6 13.5 10.7 0.2 51.7 53.9 11.1 13.3 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 14.8 13.1 9.3 0.7 57.6 57.6 9.9 12.1 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 13.3 12.4 11.4 0.0 49.4 52.1 10.7 12.5 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -0.9 1.9 9.5 0.2 52.0 54.0 -0.4 1.6 3.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 10.6 13.5 11.3 0.2 52.5 54.5 11.1 13.2 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 10.3 13.4 10.3 0.3 53.0 54.8 10.8 13.0 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 15.7 13.4 10.5 0.2 52.0 54.4 11.0 13.2 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 9.7 12.5 10.2 0.1 51.3 53.7 10.1 12.4 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 10.7 13.6 9.7 0.3 53.0 54.8 11.0 13.2 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 15.8 14.0 11.4 0.4 54.8 56.0 11.5 13.5 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 10.2 12.8 10.3 -0.1 49.2 51.3 10.6 12.9 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 16.2 14.0 10.2 0.2 52.6 54.6 11.4 13.7 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 9.9 11.8 11.3 -0.1 49.2 52.1 10.2 11.9 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 10.1 13.2 9.8 0.4 54.1 55.4 10.6 12.7 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 10.7 13.1 11.9 0.1 51.4 53.8 11.1 12.9 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.2 8.0 7.3 0.2 52.4 53.7 5.5 7.7 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 10.9 13.5 11.8 0.2 52.0 54.0 11.2 13.3 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 10.8 12.9 11.6 0.0 50.1 53.0 11.2 12.9 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 11.1 13.7 12.1 0.3 53.1 55.0 11.5 13.4 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 10.8 13.7 11.3 0.4 54.2 55.6 11.3 13.2 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 10.5 12.9 10.4 0.0 50.0 52.1 10.9 12.9 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 13.6 12.9 9.3 0.2 52.3 54.1 10.3 12.6 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 10.6 12.9 11.0 0.0 50.0 52.1 11.0 12.9 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 10.3 13.4 10.5 0.1 50.9 52.9 10.8 13.2 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 5.1 8.2 8.8 0.4 54.0 55.1 5.5 7.7 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 13.5 12.7 11.8 0.0 50.5 53.0 10.8 12.7 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------