***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2013.-07.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 17.7 14.8 0.2 52.0 50.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 18.0 17.6 14.6 0.3 53.1 51.7 16.2 17.4 18.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 18.2 17.9 14.9 0.2 52.4 51.3 16.3 17.7 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.5 9.8 13.2 0.0 49.9 49.6 8.1 9.8 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 18.6 18.1 13.5 0.1 51.3 50.7 16.4 17.9 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 17.0 16.5 11.7 0.2 51.5 51.2 14.7 16.4 17.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 17.7 17.4 14.5 0.3 53.2 51.6 16.0 17.2 18.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.3 12.3 0.4 53.5 52.8 3.6 5.0 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 18.1 17.7 14.0 0.2 52.0 51.3 16.0 17.5 18.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 18.2 17.8 13.0 0.3 52.8 52.2 16.0 17.5 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 18.2 17.7 13.3 0.2 52.0 51.6 16.0 17.6 19.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 17.2 16.8 13.1 0.3 52.9 52.5 15.0 16.5 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 18.0 17.6 12.5 0.3 52.7 52.2 15.9 17.4 18.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 18.1 17.9 14.0 0.4 53.5 52.6 16.2 17.6 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 15.5 17.1 13.3 -0.1 48.9 48.9 15.8 17.2 18.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 18.5 18.0 12.9 0.2 51.7 51.4 16.3 17.9 19.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.8 14.4 0.3 53.2 51.7 15.5 16.6 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 17.8 17.5 12.5 0.4 53.9 53.0 15.7 17.2 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 17.8 17.5 14.8 0.3 53.0 51.8 16.0 17.3 18.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.1 12.0 10.3 0.6 55.7 54.2 10.2 11.5 12.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 18.4 17.9 14.6 0.2 51.8 50.9 16.3 17.7 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 17.8 17.5 14.6 0.3 53.0 51.7 16.1 17.3 18.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 18.1 17.8 14.9 0.3 53.1 52.0 16.3 17.6 18.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 18.1 17.8 13.9 0.4 53.3 52.4 16.1 17.5 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 18.1 17.6 13.4 0.1 51.2 50.3 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 17.1 16.7 12.2 0.3 52.8 52.3 15.0 16.5 17.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 18.2 17.8 14.0 0.2 52.1 50.8 16.2 17.6 18.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 15.5 17.3 13.3 0.0 49.5 49.4 15.7 17.4 18.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.3 12.1 11.5 0.5 54.8 53.6 10.3 11.8 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 17.9 17.6 14.8 0.3 52.8 51.5 16.1 17.3 18.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------