***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2013.-07.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 12.8 11.5 -0.9 31.6 39.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 13.0 13.0 11.2 -1.1 26.6 35.6 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 13.4 13.6 11.7 -0.9 32.1 39.5 13.7 14.6 15.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.9 5.7 10.1 -0.7 38.5 43.5 5.3 6.5 7.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 13.4 14.0 10.5 -0.7 38.6 44.1 13.6 14.7 15.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 13.9 13.4 9.3 0.0 50.5 52.4 12.2 13.4 14.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 12.8 12.8 11.1 -1.1 26.6 35.7 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 1.6 2.4 9.4 -0.4 43.2 47.4 1.8 2.8 3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 13.2 13.8 11.1 -0.7 37.8 43.6 13.5 14.5 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 13.2 13.9 10.0 -0.6 40.5 45.6 13.4 14.5 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 13.2 13.9 10.4 -0.5 40.9 45.8 13.4 14.5 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 12.3 13.2 10.2 -0.4 43.4 47.6 12.5 13.7 14.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 13.2 14.3 9.9 -0.3 45.8 49.3 13.4 14.6 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 13.6 13.9 10.7 -1.0 32.8 40.2 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 12.5 13.2 10.6 -0.6 38.5 42.8 12.8 14.0 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 13.6 14.5 10.2 -0.4 43.5 47.7 13.8 15.0 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 12.2 12.1 10.8 -1.2 24.3 34.2 12.6 13.4 14.1 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 12.9 13.6 9.4 -0.6 40.7 45.8 13.1 14.2 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 13.0 13.1 11.4 -1.1 27.7 36.5 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.7 8.7 7.3 -0.3 44.6 48.3 7.9 9.1 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 13.4 13.8 11.5 -0.8 35.1 41.5 13.6 14.6 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 13.1 13.0 11.0 -1.3 24.2 34.4 13.5 14.3 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 13.5 13.6 11.5 -1.1 29.9 38.1 13.8 14.7 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 13.4 13.9 10.7 -0.8 35.9 42.3 13.7 14.7 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 12.9 13.3 10.3 -0.8 34.3 40.7 13.2 14.2 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 14.5 13.9 9.6 -0.1 48.3 50.8 12.8 14.0 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 13.1 13.3 10.9 -0.9 32.1 39.4 13.3 14.3 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 12.8 13.6 10.5 -0.5 40.6 44.9 13.0 14.3 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.7 8.6 8.5 -0.5 42.0 46.6 8.0 9.1 10.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 12.9 13.0 11.4 -1.1 28.3 36.8 13.2 14.1 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------