***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2013.-17.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 9999.0 12.9 26.6 265.3 95.0 91.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 6.8 11.1 21.0 221.4 91.1 87.6 1.9 3.3 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 3 97 100 12.5 25.3 26.0 249.9 94.5 90.7 3.1 5.5 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 12.0 29.1 33.2 286.7 97.0 93.2 3.1 5.4 8.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 4 96 100 10.0 23.5 31.2 262.2 95.8 91.2 2.2 4.2 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 10.1 20.7 33.2 256.5 94.8 92.2 2.4 4.3 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 5.8 8.6 20.4 215.3 90.2 86.9 2.0 3.1 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 10 90 100 17.7 28.4 29.4 223.0 93.3 87.7 7.5 10.7 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 5 95 100 12.7 26.4 28.9 235.9 94.2 89.2 2.7 5.3 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 15.5 31.9 29.8 225.4 93.9 88.5 3.7 6.8 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 7 93 100 14.4 35.9 29.6 258.1 95.5 90.0 2.7 5.5 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 8 92 100 11.9 23.6 28.1 238.1 93.6 87.9 3.0 5.4 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 9.8 20.0 31.9 252.9 95.0 90.9 2.5 4.5 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 7 93 100 15.5 27.9 27.2 202.5 91.0 86.5 3.1 6.2 10.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 3 97 100 10.3 32.6 33.8 323.7 97.8 94.8 1.7 3.8 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 9.9 21.7 31.1 263.5 95.8 91.1 2.6 4.5 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 8 92 100 5.4 7.3 18.5 196.6 86.9 82.8 1.8 2.9 4.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 8 92 100 13.7 26.7 29.5 204.7 92.7 87.2 2.9 5.7 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 3 97 100 8.3 14.1 22.4 226.2 91.9 88.2 2.2 3.8 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 6 94 100 10.5 17.1 32.9 206.1 92.4 87.6 3.6 5.6 8.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 5 95 100 10.8 22.2 28.1 247.7 94.2 89.7 2.5 4.7 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 10 90 100 6.2 9.2 19.9 201.0 87.8 83.6 1.7 3.0 4.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 8.4 14.6 24.3 224.0 92.3 88.6 2.3 3.9 6.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 6 94 100 17.0 34.7 27.9 215.8 93.1 88.1 3.2 6.6 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 4 96 100 9.2 21.2 31.4 265.1 95.7 92.1 2.1 3.9 6.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 1 99 100 7.1 14.0 30.8 245.3 94.0 90.6 1.6 3.0 4.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 10.2 21.1 28.6 257.7 94.7 91.7 2.3 4.3 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 3 97 100 9.1 24.5 33.5 309.0 97.5 94.0 2.0 3.9 6.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 8 92 100 21.6 39.9 29.5 196.1 91.6 86.1 4.7 9.1 15.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 6.3 11.0 22.5 234.2 93.0 89.7 1.9 3.1 4.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------