***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2013.-24.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 3.5 11.8 88.5 60.3 50.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 7.1 7.9 12.8 94.5 62.0 51.6 2.3 5.0 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 9.4 9.7 11.8 86.3 58.6 50.0 3.3 7.0 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.2 9.7 12.2 88.6 59.7 49.8 4.9 7.7 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 10.2 11.3 12.6 94.7 61.5 52.1 4.4 8.0 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 7.6 7.6 13.5 88.5 58.0 50.7 3.2 5.9 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.8 7.7 13.0 97.7 62.7 51.6 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 17.0 18.1 13.7 96.0 60.9 51.8 8.0 13.4 20.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 8.2 9.2 12.5 92.3 60.6 51.9 3.5 6.6 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 11.0 11.7 13.5 93.2 59.8 50.9 4.3 8.4 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.4 12.3 12.0 96.3 61.6 51.0 4.6 8.5 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.3 11.3 12.1 97.8 62.1 52.4 3.7 7.4 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 9.6 10.5 13.6 98.6 62.4 54.3 3.8 7.1 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 11.3 11.0 13.5 84.4 56.8 49.2 5.3 9.1 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 9.7 9.5 12.0 86.1 59.4 49.0 3.2 6.6 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.2 9.0 12.5 96.5 61.9 52.5 3.3 6.1 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 7.5 8.6 13.0 100.0 63.6 51.9 3.0 5.6 9.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 8.8 9.2 15.3 92.7 59.3 51.4 3.7 6.9 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 8.3 8.8 12.5 90.4 60.5 50.9 2.4 5.7 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.9 11.1 18.8 99.5 62.2 54.5 4.1 7.6 12.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 7.8 7.9 11.1 84.0 57.6 48.7 3.2 6.1 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 7.9 9.1 13.6 98.8 62.9 52.0 3.3 6.1 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 7.4 7.4 12.4 86.8 58.4 49.8 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 11.2 10.9 13.3 86.6 57.2 49.6 4.9 8.8 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 7.1 7.7 13.6 90.6 60.1 51.5 2.8 5.5 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.0 9.5 13.5 101.9 63.8 55.9 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 6.4 7.1 13.6 93.2 61.3 51.9 2.5 4.9 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 7.2 7.5 11.8 88.7 59.9 49.7 2.5 5.2 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 15.5 16.6 16.6 95.8 60.6 52.9 5.9 11.6 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 7.6 8.4 12.7 93.2 61.3 51.4 2.5 5.5 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------