***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2013.-31.03.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 5.7 12.1 101.7 63.3 55.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 7.0 8.4 11.6 100.4 63.0 55.6 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 9.0 11.0 12.7 101.3 63.0 54.7 3.5 7.1 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 12.6 13.9 15.0 96.3 61.4 52.8 5.7 10.0 15.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.2 9.2 15.9 98.8 62.3 53.0 3.3 6.2 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 11.8 12.6 19.1 101.3 61.9 52.2 5.5 9.2 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 6.9 8.1 11.7 102.1 63.3 55.8 2.4 5.1 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 15.0 15.6 16.8 96.0 60.2 49.9 6.1 11.4 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.1 9.1 15.8 98.5 62.1 52.6 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 10.6 11.5 17.3 99.0 61.5 51.7 4.0 7.9 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.9 11.1 15.7 99.7 62.5 52.1 3.9 7.5 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 10.6 11.1 14.8 96.0 60.8 49.9 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 13.1 14.3 17.0 101.1 62.3 52.0 5.9 10.1 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 13.9 15.8 16.1 97.9 61.2 53.5 6.1 11.2 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.3 12.8 89.4 58.8 49.5 3.7 8.0 14.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.1 11.0 16.1 98.8 61.9 52.0 3.8 7.4 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 7.5 9.1 11.8 101.6 63.6 55.7 2.6 5.6 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.2 9.8 18.4 98.7 60.7 51.8 4.1 7.2 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 7.9 9.4 11.8 99.2 62.5 55.0 2.8 5.9 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 10.9 11.5 20.2 95.3 59.1 50.7 4.9 8.8 14.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 9.1 10.5 13.8 99.5 62.5 52.9 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 8.9 10.9 12.6 107.1 65.4 56.9 4.1 7.1 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 9.9 11.4 12.7 98.0 62.1 54.4 4.6 8.1 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 10.9 11.9 16.1 98.7 61.2 52.7 4.3 8.3 13.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 10.0 11.9 14.6 101.6 62.8 55.3 4.4 8.0 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.7 9.5 15.2 94.4 59.8 50.1 3.1 6.6 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 8.5 10.3 13.6 103.3 63.5 56.0 3.0 6.3 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.3 9.7 14.5 93.2 60.5 51.2 3.0 6.5 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 15.2 16.4 19.1 98.9 60.8 52.0 6.7 12.0 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 7.2 8.7 11.7 101.4 63.2 55.8 2.9 5.7 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------