***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2013.-07.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 3.5 10.6 93.6 59.0 47.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 2.9 7.5 10.8 98.2 61.4 49.8 2.6 5.2 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.2 8.0 11.3 97.4 60.5 48.9 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.6 10.3 13.5 103.7 62.7 48.5 4.4 7.3 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.5 8.7 13.3 104.5 63.4 50.7 3.0 5.6 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.4 8.9 18.0 113.8 66.9 53.3 3.4 5.7 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.3 6.2 10.6 96.9 60.9 50.3 2.0 4.2 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 11.2 14.0 14.5 111.5 66.2 53.3 4.5 8.4 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.2 7.0 12.9 102.5 62.9 50.9 2.4 4.6 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 7.2 8.6 14.7 108.3 65.0 52.8 3.0 5.5 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 6.3 7.6 12.9 109.1 65.4 51.9 2.5 4.7 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.8 8.4 12.5 110.5 65.9 51.8 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.3 8.5 15.1 110.4 65.7 52.5 3.1 5.4 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 7.6 9.4 16.0 111.7 66.4 52.0 3.5 6.0 9.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.6 7.2 12.7 103.2 63.5 47.5 2.5 4.6 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.4 8.2 14.1 111.7 66.3 52.1 3.2 5.4 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 2.7 7.3 10.9 105.1 64.4 51.7 2.6 4.7 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 5.6 7.2 17.3 115.3 67.6 55.0 2.4 4.3 6.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 2.8 7.1 11.2 99.3 61.7 49.2 2.6 4.9 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 7.4 9.2 18.7 112.9 66.8 55.8 3.4 5.8 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 6.4 6.6 11.5 98.2 61.0 49.2 2.1 4.5 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 2.9 8.0 11.2 105.8 64.5 50.4 2.9 5.2 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 6.0 6.7 12.3 102.8 63.0 49.8 2.6 4.6 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 7.0 8.8 15.4 111.8 66.4 53.2 2.9 5.3 8.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.4 7.6 12.5 94.4 58.1 46.8 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 6.9 7.6 13.3 101.9 62.5 50.0 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 2.7 6.5 11.7 93.3 58.3 47.3 2.7 5.0 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.6 7.4 13.8 108.8 65.4 49.6 2.5 4.6 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 9.4 12.4 18.3 117.5 68.4 55.3 3.8 7.1 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.2 5.8 10.7 95.5 60.2 49.0 2.1 4.1 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------