***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2013.-07.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 9999.0 43.9 61.1 131.2 78.0 71.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 38.4 41.3 56.3 123.3 73.4 66.8 18.2 26.4 35.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 52.8 59.9 61.8 128.2 77.2 70.3 23.7 34.8 47.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 52.7 59.8 74.0 136.9 80.3 73.2 31.0 39.5 48.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 45.8 54.5 73.0 135.1 80.3 72.3 25.3 33.6 42.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 46.2 53.2 83.7 133.3 79.8 72.3 23.9 32.4 41.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 33.8 37.8 55.6 123.3 73.4 66.5 15.7 23.2 32.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 73.7 81.3 74.3 128.5 77.1 68.6 47.4 58.7 70.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 44.3 51.1 70.2 128.8 77.4 69.4 23.2 31.8 41.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 54.9 63.9 75.3 128.2 77.8 68.9 29.3 39.9 51.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 53.1 64.0 70.2 136.4 80.5 72.0 25.9 36.3 48.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 51.4 58.8 67.5 132.6 78.0 70.2 25.7 35.6 47.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 49.7 58.2 77.5 136.4 80.9 73.6 27.7 36.2 45.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 59.6 63.5 72.7 121.0 73.5 66.2 32.4 43.5 56.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 54.1 64.6 71.3 139.8 79.9 73.7 20.9 32.2 46.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 44.5 52.6 73.8 137.6 80.8 73.2 23.9 31.9 40.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 28.2 38.2 54.1 122.1 72.1 64.6 17.5 25.1 33.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 44.4 50.6 80.5 124.7 76.9 67.0 23.9 32.4 41.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 43.9 46.7 57.8 123.4 73.7 67.1 20.8 29.7 40.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 48.6 53.9 90.6 124.8 75.9 67.1 28.1 36.8 46.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 45.2 50.9 64.6 128.7 77.2 69.6 22.2 31.0 41.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 38.1 41.5 57.3 124.4 73.7 66.0 20.2 27.7 36.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 41.3 44.3 61.7 123.3 74.1 67.5 21.7 29.5 38.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 56.2 62.6 72.7 124.7 76.3 67.6 31.1 41.3 52.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 44.9 51.0 72.2 132.4 79.5 72.6 24.9 32.6 41.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 43.0 49.2 72.8 132.5 77.8 71.7 20.1 28.8 38.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 42.3 48.6 67.6 131.4 78.7 72.1 20.9 29.1 38.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 44.0 52.6 73.6 140.4 80.8 73.8 19.9 28.7 38.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 75.0 83.5 83.6 124.2 76.4 66.7 43.1 56.5 71.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 37.4 41.4 57.6 125.3 74.9 68.5 17.1 25.1 34.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------