***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2019.-07.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 4.2 5.4 4.8 -0.1 48.7 51.5 4.5 5.5 6.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 4.2 5.3 4.7 0.0 50.6 53.1 4.3 5.3 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 6.5 7.8 4.8 0.0 49.7 52.4 6.7 7.8 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 2.3 1.6 2.0 -0.2 47.6 51.4 0.6 1.8 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 2.5 3.6 2.1 -0.2 46.1 50.4 2.7 3.9 5.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 1.6 2.8 0.0 -0.1 48.1 53.9 1.8 2.9 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 4.3 5.4 4.7 0.0 49.9 52.6 4.5 5.4 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -3.2 -2.1 0.0 -0.2 46.4 52.0 -3.0 -1.9 -0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.8 4.9 2.4 -0.2 47.0 51.0 4.0 5.1 6.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 3.8 4.9 0.8 -0.2 46.2 51.4 4.1 5.1 6.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.5 4.5 1.5 -0.2 46.5 51.4 3.7 4.7 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 2.0 3.1 0.8 -0.2 46.7 52.4 2.2 3.3 4.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 2.7 3.7 0.3 -0.3 45.1 52.2 3.0 4.0 5.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.6 5.7 2.4 0.0 49.4 52.9 4.8 5.7 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.2 3.1 -0.1 49.0 52.6 4.2 5.3 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 4.1 5.2 1.0 -0.2 46.5 52.2 4.3 5.4 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 5.9 5.6 4.6 0.1 51.2 53.4 4.6 5.5 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 1.7 2.5 0.1 -0.1 47.9 52.7 1.8 2.6 3.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.0 5.3 4.6 0.1 50.9 53.3 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 0.6 0.1 -1.8 -0.2 47.5 52.9 -0.7 0.2 1.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 3.5 4.8 3.9 -0.1 47.7 51.2 3.8 4.9 6.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.7 4.8 4.4 0.1 51.2 53.5 3.9 4.8 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.7 4.8 4.4 0.1 51.2 53.4 3.9 4.8 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 3.9 5.0 2.2 -0.1 49.1 52.8 4.1 5.0 6.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.8 4.9 3.4 -0.1 47.9 51.0 4.0 5.1 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 2.8 3.8 0.1 -0.2 46.4 53.8 3.0 4.0 5.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.2 5.7 4.2 -0.2 47.8 50.8 4.5 5.9 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 3.7 3.1 2.2 -0.1 47.8 52.2 2.0 3.2 4.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 1.2 2.4 -0.4 -0.1 48.9 53.6 1.4 2.4 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 4.5 5.7 4.7 0.0 50.0 52.6 4.7 5.7 6.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------