***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2019.-17.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 11.7 10.9 10.6 -0.3 47.0 47.4 9.3 11.3 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 88 12 100 12.0 11.2 10.6 -0.4 45.3 45.7 9.9 11.7 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 12.2 11.4 10.7 -0.4 45.4 45.9 10.0 11.9 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 4.0 3.6 7.6 0.0 50.4 50.8 1.4 3.5 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 12.3 11.5 8.9 -0.3 46.7 47.3 10.0 11.9 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 10.8 10.2 6.7 -0.2 47.9 48.2 8.7 10.4 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 11.7 10.8 10.5 -0.4 45.5 45.9 9.5 11.3 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 1.7 -0.2 6.0 -1.3 36.8 37.9 -0.6 1.1 2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 12.2 11.4 10.0 -0.4 46.1 46.8 9.9 11.8 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 12.3 10.7 7.5 -1.0 40.5 41.4 9.9 11.8 13.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 12.1 11.3 9.2 -0.4 46.3 47.0 9.8 11.7 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 11.6 10.2 7.4 -0.8 41.4 42.3 9.2 11.1 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 12.4 11.4 8.4 -0.5 44.7 45.3 10.2 11.9 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 12.8 11.0 9.5 -1.1 39.4 40.4 10.3 12.2 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 89 11 100 11.4 11.6 10.6 0.4 55.2 55.3 8.9 11.0 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 12.6 11.9 8.5 -0.3 47.0 47.5 10.5 12.2 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 89 11 100 11.3 10.4 10.2 -0.4 44.8 45.1 9.1 10.9 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 12.3 10.3 6.6 -1.3 37.5 38.7 9.7 11.6 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 88 12 100 12.0 11.0 10.6 -0.5 44.5 44.9 9.7 11.6 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 7.8 5.1 3.8 -1.9 31.8 32.9 5.2 7.0 8.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 12.3 11.4 10.6 -0.5 45.0 45.6 10.1 11.9 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 12.2 10.8 10.1 -0.7 41.7 42.2 9.8 11.8 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 12.5 11.4 10.6 -0.6 43.7 44.3 10.2 12.1 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 12.6 11.2 9.3 -0.9 40.9 41.9 10.3 12.1 13.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 11.6 10.9 9.5 -0.3 47.0 47.5 9.3 11.2 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 12.2 11.1 6.6 -0.5 44.0 44.6 10.0 11.6 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 11.9 11.0 10.0 -0.4 45.4 45.9 9.6 11.4 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 88 12 100 11.7 11.6 8.9 0.2 52.3 52.6 9.0 11.3 13.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 7.5 5.1 5.6 -1.6 34.5 35.8 5.0 6.8 8.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 11.8 10.9 10.6 -0.4 45.4 45.7 9.6 11.4 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------