***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2019.-24.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.7 12.7 0.5 55.5 53.7 11.1 13.1 14.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 13.4 13.1 12.4 0.3 53.8 52.2 11.0 12.8 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 11.1 13.5 12.6 0.1 51.6 50.9 11.4 13.3 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 6.3 6.2 10.1 0.7 56.8 54.9 2.8 5.3 7.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 10.5 13.4 10.8 0.1 50.7 50.4 11.1 13.3 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 9.5 13.2 9.4 0.9 58.3 56.0 9.9 12.1 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 13.2 13.1 12.5 0.5 55.7 53.6 10.7 12.5 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 -1.2 1.0 8.5 -0.5 45.0 46.3 -0.4 1.6 3.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 10.6 13.1 11.5 -0.1 49.2 49.4 11.1 13.2 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 10.2 12.4 9.5 -0.5 45.3 46.5 10.8 13.0 15.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 10.4 13.1 10.9 0.0 49.7 49.7 11.0 13.2 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 9.4 12.3 9.8 -0.1 49.1 49.4 10.1 12.4 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 10.4 13.5 10.3 0.3 52.7 52.3 11.0 13.2 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 11.0 12.5 10.7 -1.0 40.8 42.6 11.5 13.5 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 15.4 14.8 12.4 1.3 64.1 60.1 10.6 12.9 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 11.0 14.1 10.6 0.3 53.3 52.5 11.4 13.7 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 12.5 12.2 12.1 0.3 53.4 51.8 10.2 11.9 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 9.9 11.8 8.8 -0.7 43.0 44.8 10.6 12.7 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 13.6 13.1 12.4 0.1 51.5 50.5 11.1 12.9 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 4.6 6.6 6.1 -0.8 41.4 43.4 5.5 7.7 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 10.8 13.3 12.3 0.0 50.1 50.0 11.2 13.3 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 13.6 12.7 11.9 -0.2 48.1 47.6 11.2 12.9 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 14.1 13.2 12.3 -0.1 48.5 48.3 11.5 13.4 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 11.0 12.6 10.9 -0.6 44.5 45.8 11.3 13.2 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 10.5 13.6 11.4 0.5 55.3 53.7 10.9 12.9 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 9.7 13.5 9.4 0.7 57.0 55.2 10.3 12.6 14.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 10.7 13.6 12.1 0.5 55.8 53.9 11.0 12.9 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.2 14.6 11.1 1.0 59.8 57.0 10.8 13.2 15.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 4.8 6.6 7.8 -0.9 41.3 43.5 5.5 7.7 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 13.4 13.1 12.5 0.4 54.2 52.6 10.8 12.7 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------