***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2019.-07.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 18.0 17.6 14.5 0.2 53.0 53.2 15.9 17.4 18.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 17.9 17.9 14.6 0.6 57.0 55.9 16.2 17.4 18.6 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 16.1 17.9 14.8 0.3 53.0 53.1 16.3 17.7 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.5 9.7 12.0 -0.1 49.1 49.9 8.1 9.8 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 18.6 17.7 12.6 -0.2 47.5 49.1 16.4 17.9 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 17.1 15.9 10.4 -0.4 45.5 47.4 14.7 16.4 17.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 17.7 17.7 14.6 0.6 57.4 56.2 16.0 17.2 18.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 5.6 4.7 10.9 -0.3 46.3 48.5 3.6 5.0 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 18.2 17.3 13.0 -0.2 47.6 49.2 16.0 17.5 18.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 18.2 17.3 11.8 -0.3 46.7 48.7 16.0 17.5 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 18.2 17.3 12.4 -0.3 46.9 48.8 16.0 17.6 19.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 14.8 16.3 11.9 -0.3 46.8 48.9 15.0 16.5 18.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 18.1 17.1 11.1 -0.3 46.5 48.6 15.9 17.4 18.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 18.2 17.6 13.1 0.0 50.0 51.2 16.2 17.6 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 17.8 17.3 12.9 0.1 50.9 51.0 15.8 17.2 18.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 18.6 17.7 11.9 -0.2 47.5 49.2 16.3 17.9 19.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 17.0 17.1 14.6 0.7 58.5 56.9 15.5 16.6 17.6 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 15.5 17.0 11.4 -0.3 47.3 49.1 15.7 17.2 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 17.8 17.7 14.8 0.5 56.3 55.4 16.0 17.3 18.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 10.0 11.3 8.6 -0.3 47.4 49.0 10.2 11.5 12.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 16.0 17.7 13.9 -0.1 49.0 50.3 16.3 17.7 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 17.8 17.8 14.5 0.6 56.7 55.6 16.1 17.3 18.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 18.1 18.0 14.8 0.4 55.0 54.3 16.3 17.6 18.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 18.2 17.4 13.0 -0.1 48.7 50.1 16.1 17.5 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 18.1 17.5 12.7 0.0 50.1 50.9 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 17.1 16.4 11.0 -0.1 49.0 50.4 15.0 16.5 17.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 18.2 17.8 13.7 0.2 52.2 52.7 16.2 17.6 18.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 18.0 17.3 12.3 0.0 49.5 50.2 15.7 17.4 18.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 10.1 11.5 10.5 -0.3 47.3 49.1 10.3 11.8 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 17.9 17.8 14.6 0.5 56.0 55.2 16.1 17.3 18.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------