***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2019.-07.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 14.6 14.6 12.8 0.4 57.0 54.3 13.1 14.1 15.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 13.2 14.7 12.8 0.4 58.4 54.8 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 13.5 14.8 13.0 0.2 54.1 52.2 13.7 14.6 15.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.1 7.0 10.3 0.4 56.6 54.1 5.3 6.5 7.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 13.4 14.7 11.1 0.0 50.6 50.2 13.6 14.7 15.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.9 13.5 9.0 0.1 51.7 51.7 12.2 13.4 14.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 14.4 14.5 12.8 0.5 59.6 55.7 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 1.5 2.4 8.9 -0.5 42.1 44.5 1.8 2.8 3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 13.2 14.5 11.7 0.0 49.5 49.4 13.5 14.5 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 13.2 14.1 9.9 -0.4 44.1 45.8 13.4 14.5 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 15.0 14.4 11.0 -0.1 49.0 49.2 13.4 14.5 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 12.3 13.4 10.0 -0.2 46.4 47.6 12.5 13.7 14.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 15.1 14.5 10.0 -0.1 48.6 49.6 13.4 14.6 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 13.6 14.5 11.4 -0.4 43.7 45.1 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.9 12.0 0.8 63.8 58.8 12.8 14.0 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.0 10.5 0.1 51.1 51.0 13.8 15.0 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 13.7 13.8 12.6 0.5 59.1 55.1 12.6 13.4 14.1 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 12.9 13.7 9.3 -0.5 42.0 44.3 13.1 14.2 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 13.2 14.6 12.9 0.3 56.2 53.3 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 7.6 8.3 6.5 -0.7 38.3 41.7 7.9 9.1 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 13.4 14.7 12.5 0.0 50.6 50.2 13.6 14.6 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 13.3 14.5 12.5 0.2 54.1 51.6 13.5 14.3 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 13.6 14.8 12.9 0.2 53.1 51.2 13.8 14.7 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 13.5 14.4 11.3 -0.3 45.3 46.4 13.7 14.7 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 14.6 14.5 11.4 0.3 55.1 53.1 13.2 14.2 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 14.5 14.2 9.3 0.1 52.5 52.0 12.8 14.0 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 14.8 14.7 12.2 0.3 55.9 53.6 13.3 14.3 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 14.8 14.9 11.0 0.5 58.9 55.8 13.0 14.3 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 7.7 8.4 8.3 -0.6 39.8 42.8 8.0 9.1 10.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 13.1 14.5 12.9 0.4 57.7 54.4 13.2 14.1 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------