***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2019.-17.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 4.8 6.3 17.0 165.5 80.7 73.5 1.6 2.8 4.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 6.0 8.7 16.6 189.7 84.8 76.4 1.9 3.3 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 10.8 14.1 17.3 169.0 81.2 74.5 3.1 5.5 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 9.9 11.8 17.9 146.2 76.8 69.5 3.1 5.4 8.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 8.2 10.2 19.0 150.3 77.6 72.2 2.2 4.2 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 8.2 10.9 18.8 158.6 80.2 71.9 2.4 4.3 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 5.1 7.1 16.2 187.2 84.4 75.3 2.0 3.1 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 16.7 20.5 24.6 172.8 82.7 77.0 7.5 10.7 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 10.9 13.5 19.0 156.5 79.0 73.6 2.7 5.3 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 14.0 18.0 23.9 165.2 81.0 76.2 3.7 6.8 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 12.4 16.7 20.6 163.3 80.5 74.8 2.7 5.5 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 10.8 14.8 21.1 174.7 83.1 75.7 3.0 5.4 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 8.6 11.1 21.6 164.6 81.2 74.7 2.5 4.5 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 14.4 20.1 24.9 182.2 83.8 78.7 3.1 6.2 10.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 7.9 10.5 14.9 152.2 77.9 67.2 1.7 3.8 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 8.6 11.3 20.1 167.6 81.4 74.8 2.6 4.5 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 5.0 7.2 16.5 200.1 86.3 77.6 1.8 2.9 4.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 18 82 100 12.8 17.2 26.0 175.0 83.1 79.0 2.9 5.7 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 7.5 10.5 17.2 187.7 84.5 76.8 2.2 3.8 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 11 89 100 10.3 13.1 30.3 184.0 84.9 81.0 3.6 5.6 8.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 9.1 11.4 17.8 155.6 78.7 73.1 2.5 4.7 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 14 86 100 6.0 9.2 18.3 212.1 87.8 80.8 1.7 3.0 4.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 7.7 10.4 18.3 185.5 84.1 77.2 2.3 3.9 6.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 15.3 20.2 22.3 169.7 81.6 76.9 3.2 6.6 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 7.7 9.4 18.5 150.7 77.7 71.5 2.1 3.9 6.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 6.0 7.8 20.0 160.7 80.5 73.7 1.6 3.0 4.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 8.4 10.9 17.5 160.8 79.8 72.9 2.3 4.3 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 7.5 9.8 17.5 159.4 79.6 69.9 2.0 3.9 6.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 13 87 100 20.9 28.9 27.8 182.8 84.4 80.7 4.7 9.1 15.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 5.6 7.6 16.5 181.1 83.4 75.5 1.9 3.1 4.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------