***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.03.2019.-24.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 6.4 11.8 16.7 139.6 75.2 64.6 2.4 4.9 8.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 10.6 12.9 14.7 139.3 75.2 65.7 2.3 5.0 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 14.2 18.3 17.3 145.9 76.7 65.1 3.3 7.0 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 12.4 13.9 18.3 140.6 75.5 64.6 4.9 7.7 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 15.5 19.6 20.0 159.8 79.9 68.4 4.4 8.0 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 11.9 14.8 20.1 156.7 79.5 67.6 3.2 5.9 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 9.7 11.3 14.0 136.5 74.5 63.8 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 24.9 35.5 23.0 181.7 84.5 72.2 8.0 13.4 20.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 12.6 17.2 20.8 162.4 80.7 68.0 3.5 6.6 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 17.2 24.6 22.0 172.4 82.5 70.1 4.3 8.4 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 17.0 23.5 20.6 168.9 82.1 70.8 4.6 8.5 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 16.5 24.4 20.9 178.8 83.9 71.9 3.7 7.4 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 14.7 19.7 21.3 169.9 82.0 70.1 3.8 7.1 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 16.1 21.2 23.5 159.8 79.9 68.8 5.3 9.1 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 14.5 16.2 16.4 134.4 74.0 62.9 3.2 6.6 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 12.4 16.3 20.0 163.4 80.7 69.1 3.3 6.1 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 10.6 12.1 14.4 137.8 74.8 65.2 3.0 5.6 9.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 13.5 18.2 23.2 167.6 81.5 69.9 3.7 6.9 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 12.8 16.3 15.9 142.9 76.0 65.6 2.4 5.7 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 15.1 22.8 29.3 181.5 84.3 72.4 4.1 7.6 12.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 11.7 15.8 19.6 157.6 79.5 67.5 3.2 6.1 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 11.3 13.0 15.8 137.2 74.6 64.6 3.3 6.1 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 10.9 14.5 18.2 151.2 78.0 66.3 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 16.6 21.6 21.7 157.7 79.5 68.2 4.9 8.8 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 10.3 12.6 19.3 141.0 75.6 66.3 2.8 5.5 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 12.7 17.8 22.5 177.4 83.5 71.8 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 9.3 11.3 18.0 140.9 75.6 65.8 2.5 4.9 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 11.1 12.8 17.2 141.2 75.6 63.7 2.5 5.2 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 24.1 34.6 25.5 173.6 82.7 71.6 5.9 11.6 19.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 11.7 13.8 15.0 137.3 74.7 64.2 2.5 5.5 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------