***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.03.2019.-31.03.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 3.2 6.1 11.5 74.6 50.7 38.6 3.1 6.0 10.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 2.7 4.8 9.2 67.2 47.2 37.7 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.8 7.1 11.2 73.9 50.3 39.4 3.5 7.1 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 5.4 8.9 11.8 68.7 46.0 37.4 5.7 10.0 15.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 3.1 5.9 12.2 74.1 48.6 39.0 3.3 6.2 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.6 10.4 13.7 86.9 54.4 46.1 5.5 9.2 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 2.6 4.7 9.3 68.5 47.8 37.7 2.4 5.1 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 15.0 13.4 13.9 87.3 55.5 44.2 6.1 11.4 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.2 5.9 13.2 77.4 50.3 39.8 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 4.6 8.6 14.1 82.5 52.6 41.7 4.0 7.9 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 4.1 7.5 11.6 75.9 49.8 40.3 3.9 7.5 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.5 9.0 12.3 84.2 54.0 43.6 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 6.2 10.9 13.2 82.7 52.5 44.2 5.9 10.1 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.8 10.9 13.6 72.9 48.7 39.8 6.1 11.2 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 3.9 7.3 10.7 66.4 47.8 37.9 3.7 8.0 14.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 4.1 7.3 11.9 76.3 49.4 41.5 3.8 7.4 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 2.8 4.7 8.8 64.6 46.0 37.5 2.6 5.6 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.3 7.8 14.9 83.3 52.5 42.2 4.1 7.2 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 2.8 5.2 9.7 67.9 47.1 37.6 2.8 5.9 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 5.2 11.0 17.9 92.7 57.9 45.6 4.9 8.8 14.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 3.6 7.2 12.5 76.3 50.6 39.7 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 4.1 6.3 9.4 65.2 46.0 37.4 4.1 7.1 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 4.4 7.5 10.6 70.3 47.7 37.9 4.6 8.1 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.6 8.1 13.0 74.7 49.3 39.8 4.3 8.3 13.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 4.2 8.1 13.2 75.6 50.1 39.5 4.4 8.0 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.4 7.0 12.5 80.6 51.9 43.7 3.1 6.6 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 3.1 6.6 12.4 76.4 51.2 39.6 3.0 6.3 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 3.4 5.7 11.1 68.2 46.8 38.3 3.0 6.5 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.1 13.8 16.0 87.1 54.6 43.9 6.7 12.0 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 2.9 5.4 9.9 69.8 48.5 37.8 2.9 5.7 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------