***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.04.2019.-07.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 2.3 6.4 12.4 90.8 58.2 42.4 2.4 4.8 8.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 2.4 7.0 11.7 94.1 59.1 43.4 2.6 5.2 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 2.5 7.4 12.4 91.3 58.0 41.7 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 4.2 9.7 14.2 96.4 61.0 46.4 4.4 7.3 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 2.9 7.7 13.4 93.8 59.2 45.0 3.0 5.6 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.5 8.0 16.9 103.6 62.9 52.1 3.4 5.7 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 1.9 5.9 11.5 93.6 59.3 44.0 2.0 4.2 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 5.0 10.5 14.2 91.0 57.0 47.0 4.5 8.4 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 2.2 6.2 13.7 93.1 58.6 43.7 2.4 4.6 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 3.1 7.0 15.0 92.8 57.8 45.5 3.0 5.5 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 2.6 6.3 13.2 95.1 59.3 46.4 2.5 4.7 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 2.8 6.8 13.2 94.5 59.2 48.1 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.2 7.7 16.2 102.8 62.4 50.6 3.1 5.4 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 3.2 7.0 15.0 87.8 55.4 41.9 3.5 6.0 9.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.3 7.2 14.4 100.6 63.5 47.8 2.5 4.6 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.2 7.2 14.6 99.7 61.5 48.5 3.2 5.4 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 2.5 6.1 10.9 92.3 58.5 43.9 2.6 4.7 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 2.4 5.3 15.7 92.3 57.2 44.4 2.4 4.3 6.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 2.3 6.1 11.7 90.5 57.2 41.7 2.6 4.9 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 7.5 6.7 16.0 86.6 55.0 45.5 3.4 5.8 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 2.0 6.2 13.1 94.0 59.3 42.6 2.1 4.5 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 2.8 6.1 11.0 86.1 55.1 42.6 2.9 5.2 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 2.2 5.4 11.8 86.1 55.2 39.9 2.6 4.6 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 2.8 6.6 14.5 91.2 56.9 42.7 2.9 5.3 8.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 2.9 7.8 14.0 93.4 59.0 43.8 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.9 7.2 15.4 99.6 60.9 49.5 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 2.5 6.5 13.2 91.8 58.3 43.4 2.7 5.0 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.5 6.7 14.5 99.5 62.4 47.7 2.5 4.6 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 3.9 8.7 15.8 91.4 56.7 44.4 3.8 7.1 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 1.8 5.6 11.9 92.9 59.0 43.0 2.1 4.1 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------