***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.03.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.03.2019.-07.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 28.8 33.6 57.6 112.3 65.5 57.6 16.7 24.6 33.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 38.3 36.4 52.3 114.9 67.0 59.2 18.2 26.4 35.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 40.8 48.4 58.2 114.4 66.8 59.2 23.7 34.8 47.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 43.3 46.9 62.2 108.9 63.3 56.9 31.0 39.5 48.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 45.6 44.3 64.7 115.6 67.8 61.0 25.3 33.6 42.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 45.3 47.3 69.5 122.3 73.5 64.3 23.9 32.4 41.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 35.1 32.6 51.0 114.0 66.5 58.8 15.7 23.2 32.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 76.1 81.9 75.7 129.5 77.6 69.8 47.4 58.7 70.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 44.9 44.0 66.7 117.6 69.2 61.6 23.2 31.8 41.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 56.8 59.4 75.0 123.9 73.9 66.0 29.3 39.9 51.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 53.1 54.3 66.0 122.2 72.4 64.9 25.9 36.3 48.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 52.8 57.4 67.4 128.9 76.8 68.6 25.7 35.6 47.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 49.7 52.9 72.3 126.1 75.4 67.0 27.7 36.2 45.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 58.6 61.0 76.9 120.1 71.0 63.9 32.4 43.5 56.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 38.0 42.9 56.5 107.6 62.6 55.6 20.9 32.2 46.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 44.0 45.4 66.7 122.3 72.5 64.6 23.9 31.9 40.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 29.1 34.5 50.6 114.7 66.9 59.2 17.5 25.1 33.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 45.9 48.9 79.8 125.3 74.9 67.0 23.9 32.4 41.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 34.9 41.0 54.4 114.8 67.1 59.0 20.8 29.7 40.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 51.1 57.9 93.5 132.6 80.0 72.1 28.1 36.8 46.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 35.6 42.9 63.1 116.2 68.2 60.4 22.2 31.0 41.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 31.3 37.0 54.6 115.1 67.3 59.4 20.2 27.7 36.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 40.5 39.8 59.0 116.2 68.0 59.9 21.7 29.5 38.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 56.4 56.4 71.5 118.7 70.1 62.6 31.1 41.3 52.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 36.2 40.5 65.0 111.3 64.9 57.6 24.9 32.6 41.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 43.2 46.2 70.5 125.5 74.9 66.7 20.1 28.8 38.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 33.2 38.2 61.1 112.7 65.8 57.9 20.9 29.1 38.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 33.0 38.1 60.4 111.5 65.2 58.0 19.9 28.7 38.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 77.6 85.8 85.1 129.7 77.9 69.9 43.1 56.5 71.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 29.5 34.5 53.3 113.3 66.1 58.5 17.1 25.1 34.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------