***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.03.2018.-18.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 3.5 7.2 6.3 4.7 97.1 96.4 -0.5 1.0 2.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 3.2 6.1 5.7 4.3 96.1 95.4 -0.4 0.9 2.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 5.5 8.6 6.4 4.6 96.5 95.8 1.8 3.2 4.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 -0.5 1.2 2.6 3.5 89.9 89.0 -4.6 -3.1 -1.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 1.8 4.1 4.6 4.6 95.7 95.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 1.1 3.1 1.6 4.5 94.6 93.7 -1.9 -0.8 0.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 3.4 6.7 5.9 4.5 96.6 96.0 -0.3 1.1 2.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 -3.0 -0.2 1.7 4.4 94.5 93.7 -7.0 -5.6 -4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 3.2 5.8 4.3 4.4 95.6 94.7 -0.1 1.1 2.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 3.0 5.0 2.6 4.4 94.7 93.9 0.1 1.1 2.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 2.6 5.0 4.0 4.6 96.1 95.5 -0.3 0.8 1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 1.5 3.8 3.1 4.9 95.9 95.3 -1.5 -0.4 0.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 2.3 4.8 3.3 5.0 96.6 96.1 -0.5 0.5 1.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 3.5 5.9 4.2 4.4 95.3 94.4 0.4 1.5 2.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 3.1 5.2 4.4 3.9 94.7 93.8 0.0 1.2 2.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 3.2 5.5 3.5 4.9 96.3 95.7 0.4 1.4 2.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 3.5 6.1 5.5 4.2 95.7 94.9 0.1 1.3 2.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 1.1 3.3 2.3 4.6 95.1 94.4 -1.9 -0.8 0.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 3.4 6.4 5.7 4.2 95.9 95.1 -0.4 1.0 2.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 -1.1 1.6 1.0 4.9 95.8 95.3 -4.5 -3.3 -2.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 2.7 5.5 5.7 4.6 96.5 95.8 -0.5 0.7 1.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 2.9 5.2 5.3 3.8 94.5 93.6 -0.5 0.8 1.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 2.8 5.4 5.4 4.2 95.6 94.8 -0.6 0.6 1.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 2.8 5.3 4.3 4.6 95.8 95.1 -0.2 0.9 1.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 2.8 5.5 5.7 4.9 96.5 95.9 -0.4 0.7 1.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 2.4 4.5 2.7 4.9 95.8 95.3 -0.4 0.6 1.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 3.5 7.7 6.3 5.1 97.5 96.9 -0.8 0.8 2.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 1.6 3.2 3.3 3.8 91.8 91.0 -1.6 -0.5 0.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 0.7 3.3 1.3 4.6 94.4 93.8 -3.1 -1.7 -0.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 3.5 6.6 6.0 4.4 96.5 95.8 -0.3 1.1 2.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------