***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.03.2018.-25.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 44 56 100 3.9 4.1 4.5 1.4 68.9 65.9 1.1 2.5 3.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 2.7 3.3 3.9 0.9 63.2 61.1 0.9 2.2 3.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 6.0 6.1 4.5 1.4 68.5 65.4 3.1 4.5 5.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 0.5 0.7 1.7 1.5 69.6 66.2 -3.3 -1.4 0.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 2.9 3.1 2.6 1.7 71.2 67.6 0.0 1.3 2.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 2.3 2.7 0.3 2.1 76.1 72.2 -0.6 0.7 1.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 3.8 3.5 3.9 1.0 64.0 61.7 1.0 2.4 3.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 -2.6 -2.3 0.1 1.9 73.1 69.9 -6.7 -4.9 -3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 4.1 4.5 2.7 1.8 73.8 70.0 1.1 2.5 3.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 3.8 4.1 1.0 1.9 72.9 69.5 1.3 2.4 3.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 3.7 4.0 2.0 1.9 74.5 70.6 1.0 2.2 3.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 2.6 3.0 1.2 2.0 74.3 70.8 -0.3 1.0 2.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 3.4 3.9 1.4 2.3 77.9 73.6 0.7 1.8 3.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 4.4 4.5 2.3 1.5 69.7 66.7 2.0 3.1 4.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 4.2 4.6 3.2 1.8 76.1 71.9 1.3 2.6 3.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 4.3 4.8 1.7 2.1 76.3 72.0 1.4 2.7 3.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 2.9 3.2 3.6 0.7 60.2 58.8 1.2 2.5 3.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 1.8 1.9 0.4 1.8 71.4 68.3 -0.4 0.6 1.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 2.8 3.4 3.9 1.0 64.1 61.7 1.0 2.3 3.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 -0.9 -0.7 -1.3 1.7 70.5 67.5 -3.7 -2.3 -1.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 3.6 3.9 4.0 1.6 71.6 67.9 1.0 2.3 3.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 2.4 2.6 3.4 0.6 58.9 57.5 0.8 2.0 3.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 3.1 3.1 3.7 1.2 67.1 64.0 0.8 1.9 3.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 3.5 3.7 2.3 1.7 71.2 68.0 1.2 2.3 3.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 3.5 3.6 3.5 1.5 69.0 65.8 0.8 2.1 3.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 3.2 3.6 0.8 2.0 75.1 71.6 0.5 1.7 2.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 4.0 4.2 4.1 1.5 68.6 65.5 0.8 2.4 3.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 2.6 2.9 2.3 1.7 73.1 69.3 -0.3 1.0 2.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 1.2 1.5 -0.3 1.9 71.9 68.9 -2.2 -0.6 0.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 4.2 4.0 4.1 1.1 65.2 62.7 1.2 2.7 4.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------