***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.03.2018.-01.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 4.6 4.2 4.3 0.1 52.2 52.6 2.8 4.1 5.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 4.2 3.9 3.9 0.1 50.9 51.1 2.8 3.8 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.4 4.2 0.2 53.2 53.3 5.0 6.1 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 0.7 0.5 1.6 0.3 54.3 53.4 -1.1 0.2 1.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 1.6 3.5 1.8 0.3 54.3 53.8 1.8 3.1 4.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 2.8 2.6 -0.5 0.3 54.4 54.4 1.1 2.3 3.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 4.4 4.0 3.9 0.0 50.2 50.5 2.9 4.0 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -4.7 -2.9 -0.6 0.2 52.7 53.8 -4.5 -3.1 -1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 2.6 4.3 2.1 0.3 54.2 54.3 2.8 4.0 5.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 2.7 4.3 0.3 0.2 53.1 53.9 2.9 4.1 5.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 2.3 4.2 1.0 0.4 55.4 54.7 2.6 3.8 5.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 0.8 2.7 0.3 0.3 55.1 55.0 1.1 2.3 3.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 1.7 3.6 0.0 0.3 54.0 54.3 2.1 3.3 4.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 4.7 4.3 1.7 0.0 50.4 52.0 3.2 4.3 5.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.5 4.5 2.8 0.4 56.3 54.7 3.2 4.1 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.0 4.8 0.6 0.4 55.4 54.7 3.3 4.5 5.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 4.5 4.1 3.8 0.0 49.6 49.6 3.2 4.1 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 0.4 1.9 -0.4 0.2 53.1 54.4 0.6 1.7 2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 4.2 3.9 3.9 0.1 51.9 52.0 2.7 3.8 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 -2.4 -0.7 -2.6 0.1 51.0 53.3 -2.1 -0.8 0.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 2.3 4.0 3.4 0.2 53.7 53.7 2.5 3.8 5.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 3.8 3.3 3.5 0.0 49.2 49.5 2.3 3.3 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 3.8 3.6 3.7 0.2 52.9 53.0 2.4 3.4 4.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 4.1 3.9 1.6 0.2 53.6 54.2 2.6 3.7 4.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 4.6 4.2 2.8 0.1 51.7 52.0 2.8 4.0 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 1.8 3.6 -0.2 0.3 54.5 54.8 2.1 3.3 4.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.6 3.7 0.2 52.2 52.6 3.1 4.5 5.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 2.9 2.9 1.9 0.4 56.1 54.7 1.4 2.5 3.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 -0.7 1.1 -1.1 0.2 53.0 54.5 -0.4 0.9 2.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 4.7 4.4 4.0 0.1 51.3 51.6 3.1 4.3 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------