***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.03.2018.-08.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 4.2 4.9 5.0 1.6 83.0 76.8 2.6 3.3 4.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 3.9 4.4 4.5 1.3 79.2 73.1 2.4 3.1 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 6.3 7.0 5.0 1.5 82.9 77.0 4.7 5.4 6.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 0.5 1.0 2.1 1.3 78.7 73.1 -1.5 -0.6 0.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 3.0 3.7 2.9 1.7 84.3 78.4 1.4 2.1 2.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 2.3 2.9 0.5 1.8 84.6 78.6 0.6 1.3 1.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 4.0 4.5 4.6 1.3 79.7 73.6 2.6 3.2 3.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 18 82 100 -2.5 -1.8 0.4 1.7 83.0 77.1 -4.8 -3.8 -2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 4.1 4.7 3.0 1.7 84.6 78.5 2.5 3.2 3.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 4.0 4.5 1.3 1.7 83.0 77.2 2.6 3.2 3.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 3.8 4.4 2.2 1.8 86.0 79.9 2.3 2.9 3.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 2.6 3.3 1.4 1.9 86.0 80.0 0.9 1.6 2.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 3.4 4.1 1.4 2.0 87.0 80.6 1.8 2.5 3.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 4.4 4.8 2.7 1.5 80.8 75.3 3.1 3.7 4.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 4.2 4.8 3.4 1.5 84.3 77.9 2.7 3.4 3.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 4.5 5.2 1.8 1.9 86.8 80.7 2.8 3.5 4.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 4.1 4.4 4.3 1.1 76.5 70.7 2.8 3.4 4.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 1.8 2.2 0.6 1.7 82.3 76.9 0.5 1.0 1.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 4.0 4.5 4.5 1.3 80.0 73.9 2.4 3.1 3.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 20 80 100 -0.6 0.0 -1.1 1.7 83.0 76.8 -2.2 -1.5 -0.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 3.8 4.5 4.3 1.6 84.0 77.9 2.3 3.0 3.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 3.4 3.7 4.1 1.0 74.8 69.5 2.1 2.7 3.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 3.5 4.1 4.3 1.4 81.2 75.2 2.0 2.7 3.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 3.8 4.3 2.6 1.6 83.2 77.5 2.4 3.0 3.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 4.0 4.7 3.9 1.6 83.2 76.9 2.3 3.0 3.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 3.4 4.1 0.9 1.9 86.4 80.4 1.7 2.4 3.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 4.5 5.3 4.6 1.7 83.9 77.6 2.6 3.4 4.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 2.4 2.9 2.5 1.5 81.3 75.6 0.9 1.6 2.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 1.4 2.0 -0.1 1.7 82.1 76.7 -0.5 0.3 1.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 4.3 4.9 4.7 1.4 80.6 74.4 2.8 3.5 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------