***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.03.2018.-25.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 14.3 13.4 12.4 -0.2 47.6 48.0 11.8 13.6 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 13.8 12.7 12.1 -0.5 44.2 45.5 11.5 13.2 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 14.6 13.6 12.7 -0.2 47.7 48.0 11.9 13.8 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 6.8 5.8 9.8 0.1 50.6 50.2 3.3 5.8 8.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.7 13.9 11.1 0.0 50.3 50.0 11.8 13.9 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 13.4 13.1 9.2 0.3 53.5 52.5 10.4 12.6 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 13.6 12.4 12.0 -0.5 44.1 45.4 11.3 13.0 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 2.7 2.2 9.3 0.1 51.3 50.9 0.1 2.1 4.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 14.6 13.8 11.9 0.0 50.2 49.9 11.7 13.8 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 14.4 13.8 10.4 0.1 51.2 50.7 11.5 13.6 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 14.5 13.9 11.3 0.1 51.0 50.6 11.6 13.8 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 13.6 13.0 10.1 0.1 50.7 50.5 10.7 12.9 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 14.5 13.8 10.4 0.1 50.6 50.3 11.5 13.7 15.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 14.7 13.5 11.5 -0.5 45.3 46.1 12.1 14.0 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 14.2 13.5 11.5 0.1 51.5 50.9 11.0 13.3 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 15.0 14.3 10.6 0.1 50.7 50.3 12.0 14.2 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 12.9 11.5 11.6 -0.7 41.4 43.5 10.7 12.3 13.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 14.1 13.2 9.7 -0.1 49.3 49.3 11.2 13.3 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 14.0 12.9 12.3 -0.4 45.2 46.2 11.6 13.4 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.0 8.0 7.0 -0.1 49.0 49.1 6.0 8.2 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 14.7 13.7 12.5 -0.1 48.9 48.8 11.9 13.9 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 13.9 12.4 11.7 -0.7 40.9 43.1 11.6 13.3 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 14.5 13.5 12.5 -0.3 46.4 47.1 12.1 13.9 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 14.6 13.6 11.6 -0.2 47.8 47.9 11.9 13.9 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 14.3 13.3 11.2 -0.1 48.3 48.4 11.5 13.5 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 13.8 13.3 9.1 0.1 51.5 50.9 10.9 13.1 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 14.3 13.2 11.8 -0.3 47.1 47.6 11.6 13.5 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.6 13.9 10.6 0.1 51.6 51.0 11.3 13.7 15.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 9.1 8.2 8.8 -0.1 49.1 49.2 6.1 8.3 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 13.8 12.7 12.3 -0.4 45.7 46.6 11.4 13.2 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------