***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.03.2018.-01.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 13.0 14.6 12.9 -0.3 45.8 46.2 13.3 15.0 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 13.5 14.9 12.6 -0.3 45.5 45.5 13.8 15.3 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 16.3 15.4 13.2 -0.2 47.3 47.3 14.1 15.6 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 8.2 7.4 11.1 0.0 49.7 49.6 5.8 7.5 9.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 13.6 15.5 11.7 -0.1 48.9 49.1 13.9 15.6 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 12.7 14.9 10.0 0.2 52.5 52.2 13.0 14.6 16.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 13.4 14.6 12.5 -0.4 44.4 44.7 13.6 15.0 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 4.3 3.7 10.1 0.1 50.6 50.1 2.1 3.6 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 13.4 15.2 12.0 -0.1 48.5 48.8 13.7 15.4 16.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 13.5 15.4 10.9 0.0 49.6 49.5 13.8 15.5 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 13.5 15.5 11.5 0.0 49.9 49.9 13.8 15.5 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 12.7 14.8 11.0 0.1 50.6 50.4 13.0 14.7 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 16.5 15.8 10.3 0.0 50.4 50.4 14.1 15.8 17.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.6 15.7 11.8 -0.2 48.3 48.2 14.2 15.8 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 13.2 15.1 11.9 0.1 50.7 50.4 13.5 15.0 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 16.7 16.0 11.1 0.0 50.4 50.4 14.3 16.0 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 12.7 13.9 12.4 -0.4 44.5 44.4 13.0 14.3 15.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.1 10.4 -0.1 49.2 48.9 13.4 15.1 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 13.5 15.0 12.9 -0.2 46.9 46.6 13.7 15.3 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.0 7.6 0.0 49.7 48.7 8.4 10.0 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 16.2 15.3 12.7 -0.2 47.7 47.9 13.9 15.5 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 13.4 14.9 12.5 -0.3 45.6 45.2 13.7 15.2 16.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 16.3 15.6 13.2 -0.1 48.6 47.9 14.2 15.7 17.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 16.3 15.5 11.9 -0.1 48.5 48.5 14.0 15.6 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 13.5 14.9 11.4 -0.3 46.8 47.2 13.7 15.2 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 13.4 15.4 10.2 0.2 51.9 51.4 13.7 15.2 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 13.7 15.0 12.2 -0.4 45.4 46.0 13.9 15.4 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 13.3 15.3 11.4 0.1 50.9 50.6 13.5 15.2 16.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 10.7 9.9 9.5 -0.1 49.2 48.8 8.3 10.0 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 15.8 14.8 12.7 -0.3 45.7 45.8 13.7 15.2 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------