***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.03.2018.-08.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 14.7 15.1 13.4 0.6 61.8 59.3 13.4 14.4 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 14.8 15.0 13.2 0.5 60.9 58.3 13.7 14.5 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 15.2 15.6 13.8 0.8 64.2 61.5 13.9 14.9 15.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 7.2 7.5 10.7 0.6 60.0 58.4 5.6 6.8 8.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 16.0 15.8 12.1 0.9 64.3 61.9 13.9 15.0 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 14.9 14.8 10.2 1.1 67.4 64.4 12.5 13.7 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 14.5 14.7 13.1 0.5 60.1 57.5 13.4 14.2 15.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 3.4 3.9 10.4 0.9 64.7 62.2 2.0 3.0 4.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 15.8 15.7 12.8 0.9 65.6 63.0 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 15.8 15.7 11.4 1.0 65.9 63.3 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 43 57 100 15.8 15.8 12.2 1.0 65.9 63.3 13.7 14.8 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 14.3 14.9 11.2 0.9 64.4 62.0 12.8 13.9 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 16.0 15.8 11.2 0.9 65.2 62.6 13.7 14.8 15.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 16.0 15.8 12.7 0.8 63.4 61.0 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 14.7 15.0 12.2 0.6 61.5 59.8 13.2 14.3 15.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 16.4 16.3 11.6 1.0 65.6 63.0 14.1 15.2 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 13.9 14.0 12.9 0.4 58.9 56.4 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 43 57 100 15.4 15.3 10.9 0.9 64.5 62.1 13.4 14.4 15.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 14.8 15.1 13.5 0.7 62.6 59.8 13.7 14.5 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 9.6 10.1 8.1 0.7 61.8 59.7 8.2 9.3 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 15.2 15.7 13.5 0.8 64.3 61.7 13.9 14.9 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 14.8 14.9 13.1 0.5 59.2 56.7 13.7 14.5 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 15.8 15.7 13.8 0.8 65.0 62.0 14.1 14.9 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 15.9 15.7 12.7 0.9 64.8 62.3 14.0 14.9 15.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 14.8 15.1 12.1 0.7 61.8 59.5 13.5 14.5 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 44 56 100 15.4 15.3 10.2 0.9 65.1 62.3 13.1 14.2 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 14.9 15.2 12.7 0.6 61.4 58.9 13.6 14.6 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 15.0 15.4 11.4 0.7 61.8 59.9 13.4 14.6 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 9.7 10.2 10.0 0.8 63.1 61.0 8.2 9.3 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 14.7 15.0 13.3 0.6 61.8 59.1 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------