***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.03.2018.-18.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 4.6 6.3 19.8 190.7 85.1 79.4 1.4 2.3 3.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 6.0 8.3 16.0 178.2 83.1 75.9 1.9 3.3 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 10.4 12.7 16.0 148.6 77.1 70.6 2.7 5.1 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 11.3 16.0 24.3 192.2 85.4 79.2 3.2 5.6 8.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 9.2 12.2 20.5 171.1 82.2 76.2 2.2 4.3 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 10.1 18.2 28.0 247.7 92.7 88.6 2.7 4.7 7.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 5.3 7.9 17.7 207.8 87.4 80.9 1.7 2.9 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 16.6 17.9 19.4 134.0 73.2 68.4 7.1 10.8 15.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 11.3 13.9 18.8 155.5 79.1 73.9 2.8 5.5 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 45 55 100 12.6 13.6 18.5 126.5 70.7 65.6 4.1 7.3 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 11.9 16.8 19.9 163.6 80.5 73.6 2.9 5.9 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 11.1 14.2 19.7 160.7 80.2 74.1 3.2 5.8 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 9.5 12.8 23.3 183.9 84.7 77.6 3.0 5.0 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 8.1 10.1 15.0 101.3 62.5 58.0 3.3 6.6 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 12 88 100 10.0 17.1 25.2 235.0 88.8 82.5 1.8 3.9 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 9.0 13.1 22.6 195.0 86.1 79.2 2.8 4.7 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 5.4 7.9 16.2 201.9 86.6 78.1 1.9 3.0 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 7.3 9.7 17.0 107.9 64.5 60.5 3.3 6.1 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 7.3 9.7 15.3 157.3 79.1 71.8 1.8 3.6 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 6.0 7.8 18.7 109.9 65.0 61.7 3.2 5.3 8.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 8.9 11.9 18.8 165.1 80.9 75.2 2.1 4.1 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 6.2 8.6 15.6 174.6 82.4 73.7 1.8 3.2 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 6.5 7.6 14.5 134.8 73.8 66.5 1.6 3.3 5.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 8.3 11.2 14.7 106.2 64.4 60.1 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 8.4 11.9 22.0 188.5 85.0 79.4 2.2 4.0 6.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 8.4 14.0 26.9 235.3 91.1 86.0 2.3 4.0 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 17 83 100 8.2 11.9 20.8 194.4 85.8 79.9 2.1 3.9 6.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 8.4 12.8 23.8 202.5 86.5 79.6 2.0 3.8 6.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 12.3 15.3 16.4 102.3 62.0 58.1 5.6 10.4 17.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 5.7 7.5 16.4 173.3 82.3 75.7 1.8 3.1 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------