***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.03.2018.-25.03.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 11.6 17.1 19.8 172.5 83.3 73.5 2.4 5.2 9.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 10.9 16.0 17.5 169.2 82.4 73.9 2.2 4.8 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 14.9 19.8 18.3 157.7 80.4 69.3 3.5 6.9 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 13.3 16.9 24.3 171.9 82.6 74.1 4.5 7.4 10.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 15.3 20.6 22.9 166.3 81.6 71.6 4.5 8.1 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 12.6 17.4 23.7 165.9 82.4 71.3 3.2 6.2 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 10.4 15.8 17.9 178.1 84.2 74.5 2.4 4.8 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 22.8 31.5 25.6 172.9 82.9 73.0 7.5 12.7 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 12.0 16.0 21.9 157.4 80.0 69.1 3.5 6.5 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 15.7 21.9 24.8 166.8 81.5 71.6 4.2 7.9 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 16.4 24.0 25.1 173.5 83.3 73.0 4.3 8.2 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 14.5 22.2 24.6 174.6 83.6 73.5 3.1 6.5 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 15.2 25.1 27.9 194.5 86.6 76.8 3.8 7.4 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 15.3 18.8 22.2 147.5 77.7 67.9 4.6 8.4 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 15.3 21.4 22.5 170.1 82.0 73.6 2.7 6.2 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 12.7 19.0 25.6 179.9 84.4 74.2 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 11.0 15.6 17.8 176.0 83.4 74.4 3.2 5.7 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 12.3 14.9 23.6 150.2 77.9 68.6 3.9 6.8 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 13.1 17.9 17.1 157.1 79.8 71.3 2.6 5.8 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 15.8 21.9 30.7 171.5 82.7 76.0 3.7 7.2 12.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 11.8 16.4 20.5 161.5 81.2 69.2 3.6 6.4 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 12.4 16.2 17.5 158.3 79.9 71.1 3.8 6.7 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 11.3 14.0 17.2 143.7 76.8 67.3 3.0 5.8 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 15.7 19.5 21.3 148.0 77.9 67.1 5.0 8.7 13.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 11.9 18.0 25.1 186.7 86.0 77.1 2.9 5.5 9.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 11.4 18.5 26.8 188.2 86.5 77.3 2.9 5.5 9.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 10.5 15.9 22.7 184.2 85.5 76.5 2.5 4.9 8.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 11.7 15.9 23.2 169.1 82.0 73.1 2.4 5.1 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 21.0 27.0 26.0 156.1 79.7 71.8 5.6 10.6 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 12.9 17.9 17.6 168.7 82.3 73.3 2.8 5.6 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------