***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.03.2018.-01.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 12.1 12.5 16.5 124.3 71.0 60.5 3.2 6.3 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 7.7 11.1 14.1 116.2 68.7 57.6 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 9.9 15.1 16.0 121.9 70.3 59.4 3.7 7.4 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.6 16.5 16.7 114.2 67.9 56.8 5.0 9.4 15.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.5 11.6 16.7 114.1 67.7 57.0 3.1 6.3 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.0 13.4 17.4 109.5 65.5 56.3 4.7 8.5 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 7.4 11.3 14.9 123.7 71.0 59.1 2.7 5.5 9.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 14.7 18.8 17.4 109.8 65.8 56.5 6.1 11.5 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 8.2 11.9 17.7 115.0 67.8 57.1 2.7 6.0 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 10.6 14.3 18.5 112.5 66.8 56.7 3.9 8.0 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 10.3 13.4 15.8 111.4 66.6 56.0 3.8 7.6 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.3 13.6 15.9 111.5 66.5 57.0 4.1 7.9 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 12.1 16.0 17.9 113.5 67.1 57.5 5.3 9.5 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.5 19.6 20.2 117.4 68.6 57.3 6.1 11.2 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 12.3 18.1 16.3 116.5 69.0 55.4 3.5 8.5 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 9.9 13.2 16.5 112.4 66.9 56.6 3.6 7.4 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 7.8 11.4 13.7 115.1 68.4 57.9 2.8 5.8 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 8.8 12.0 20.3 115.6 67.8 57.2 3.4 6.7 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 8.5 12.6 14.6 116.6 68.7 57.7 3.0 6.3 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 11.5 14.4 22.4 113.2 67.0 57.6 5.3 9.1 14.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 9.2 13.4 16.5 117.8 69.0 58.2 3.4 6.9 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 8.2 11.1 14.2 112.7 67.4 56.8 3.3 6.3 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 10.1 14.3 15.9 119.1 69.4 58.1 4.6 8.2 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 10.7 15.1 18.6 116.8 68.4 57.1 3.7 7.8 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 10.4 14.8 18.0 121.8 70.1 60.0 4.7 8.2 13.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.5 11.7 16.5 107.0 64.5 55.3 3.4 7.0 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 9.3 14.5 17.7 125.3 71.3 60.7 3.4 6.9 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.0 13.7 16.3 113.0 67.6 55.2 3.5 7.2 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 14.7 19.2 21.1 114.0 67.1 57.4 5.7 10.9 18.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 8.1 11.8 15.0 119.1 69.6 58.2 3.2 6.3 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------