***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.04.2018.-08.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 3.4 10.0 13.8 116.3 68.5 56.0 3.2 5.7 9.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 3.3 10.3 12.7 125.9 71.5 55.5 3.0 5.5 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.2 9.8 13.3 113.9 67.7 56.0 2.8 5.4 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.9 12.1 15.3 108.4 65.9 52.8 4.8 8.0 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 8.4 9.9 14.7 102.9 63.7 51.6 3.8 6.7 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 6.6 7.1 15.8 97.6 60.7 51.3 3.1 5.3 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.6 8.8 12.4 122.8 70.7 56.1 2.3 4.5 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 12.4 14.9 16.6 108.0 65.2 53.5 5.5 9.6 15.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.5 7.7 15.3 105.3 64.4 52.3 2.6 4.9 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 7.8 9.3 17.0 107.2 64.9 53.4 3.7 6.2 9.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 6.3 7.2 14.1 102.4 63.5 51.4 3.2 5.1 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 6.5 7.8 14.4 104.7 64.2 52.3 2.3 4.7 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.0 7.1 15.4 99.8 61.8 51.1 2.8 5.0 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 11.3 10.8 18.1 116.8 68.4 56.8 4.2 6.8 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 5.0 6.2 14.9 113.7 68.0 53.0 2.4 4.0 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.4 7.3 14.4 98.8 61.8 50.3 3.2 5.4 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 6.1 8.9 13.0 129.9 72.7 56.0 2.6 4.6 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 6.1 7.4 18.2 109.2 65.4 54.2 2.7 4.7 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.4 9.7 13.1 124.4 71.0 56.0 3.2 5.5 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 7.9 9.6 20.8 113.0 66.6 54.8 3.7 6.2 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 6.5 8.1 14.0 107.5 65.7 54.1 2.5 4.9 8.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 6.8 9.4 13.4 127.0 71.9 54.7 3.3 5.4 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 9.2 8.9 13.9 120.8 69.9 57.6 3.1 5.2 8.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.2 8.8 15.9 108.5 65.5 54.5 3.1 5.6 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.8 10.8 15.4 111.5 66.9 55.0 4.2 7.0 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.6 7.8 15.5 106.8 64.6 52.0 2.5 4.8 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 7.0 9.2 14.8 117.0 68.8 56.2 3.0 5.3 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 5.6 6.9 14.9 105.7 64.9 51.9 2.5 4.5 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 10.7 12.9 19.1 112.2 66.4 54.9 4.9 8.4 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.6 8.0 12.9 123.5 70.8 56.2 2.4 4.3 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------