***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.03.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.03.2018.-08.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 41.7 56.2 69.9 148.7 85.6 78.0 16.8 25.1 35.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 41.5 51.1 60.4 145.1 83.4 75.3 18.8 26.6 35.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 52.7 63.1 63.7 134.7 79.5 70.6 24.4 35.2 47.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 53.9 63.9 80.5 145.2 82.4 75.4 31.8 40.4 50.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 46.9 55.9 74.8 136.8 79.6 71.2 26.8 35.4 44.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 47.4 60.4 85.0 147.0 85.2 79.1 23.5 32.0 41.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 38.7 51.1 62.8 154.5 86.3 79.1 16.3 23.8 32.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 75.6 83.4 79.0 130.4 77.2 69.3 47.8 59.6 71.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 45.8 52.6 73.7 131.9 77.7 68.7 24.3 32.9 42.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 55.4 61.8 78.8 127.3 75.6 66.9 30.8 41.1 52.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 51.7 62.7 74.9 137.0 79.8 71.2 26.4 36.7 48.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 50.8 61.0 74.6 137.2 80.2 72.1 26.1 35.7 47.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 49.3 62.8 84.5 145.1 84.2 76.1 28.1 36.7 46.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 48.6 62.1 75.5 120.6 72.0 63.9 33.5 44.5 56.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 52.9 71.8 78.9 154.5 83.8 76.3 20.6 31.9 46.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 44.0 55.3 79.1 143.6 83.0 74.4 24.6 32.5 41.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 39.5 50.9 60.7 151.5 85.0 77.6 17.6 25.1 34.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 36.7 46.9 79.1 120.2 71.9 63.6 24.5 33.0 42.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 46.1 54.6 60.1 137.6 80.6 72.2 22.3 31.0 41.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 49.4 54.0 92.7 126.2 75.7 68.8 28.7 37.2 46.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 45.6 54.0 69.9 136.6 80.1 71.0 22.6 31.3 41.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 40.3 48.2 60.7 140.5 81.1 72.9 21.1 28.5 36.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 41.5 47.4 61.6 129.2 76.8 68.3 22.9 30.8 39.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 45.8 57.6 70.5 119.8 71.4 62.9 31.4 41.7 53.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 47.0 58.6 80.5 149.9 85.6 78.6 25.2 33.2 41.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 45.6 63.4 85.7 154.0 87.9 81.2 20.3 29.0 39.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 44.4 58.4 75.9 152.6 86.8 80.1 20.7 28.9 38.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 42.9 55.3 78.1 144.8 81.9 73.9 19.3 28.3 39.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 61.9 78.6 82.6 120.8 72.5 64.9 43.5 56.7 71.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 40.3 50.6 61.9 144.2 83.4 75.2 17.9 25.7 34.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------