***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.03.2017.-02.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 5.4 5.4 5.2 1.4 69.1 64.4 2.9 4.0 5.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 5.0 5.1 5.0 1.3 69.6 65.4 2.9 3.9 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 7.6 7.6 5.1 1.3 69.5 65.6 5.1 6.3 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 1.6 1.8 2.6 1.4 69.7 65.7 -1.0 0.3 1.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 4.3 4.3 2.6 1.3 67.9 64.3 1.8 3.0 4.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 3.4 3.3 0.4 1.2 66.7 63.8 1.2 2.3 3.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 5.1 5.2 5.0 1.4 69.5 65.2 3.1 4.1 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 -1.7 -1.7 0.3 1.2 67.1 64.1 -4.4 -3.1 -1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 5.2 5.2 2.9 1.3 68.1 64.6 2.8 4.0 5.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 5.3 5.2 1.2 1.2 67.0 64.0 2.9 4.1 5.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 5.0 4.9 1.7 1.1 66.5 63.4 2.6 3.8 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 3.5 3.5 1.1 1.2 67.4 64.2 1.1 2.3 3.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 4.4 4.3 0.7 1.2 66.5 63.3 2.1 3.2 4.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 5.4 5.5 2.8 1.3 68.3 65.5 3.4 4.4 5.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 5.4 5.6 3.7 1.4 71.4 67.6 3.3 4.3 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 5.6 5.5 1.3 1.2 66.4 63.1 3.3 4.4 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 5.2 5.2 4.8 1.2 67.9 64.2 3.3 4.2 5.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 2.8 2.8 0.5 1.2 66.7 63.7 0.7 1.8 2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 5.1 5.2 4.9 1.3 69.7 65.8 2.9 3.9 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 0.6 0.4 -1.6 1.3 66.2 63.1 -2.0 -0.8 0.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 5.1 5.1 4.3 1.3 69.1 65.0 2.6 3.8 4.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 4.5 4.4 4.5 1.1 67.4 64.1 2.5 3.4 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 4.6 4.7 4.7 1.3 69.7 66.2 2.5 3.5 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 4.9 4.9 2.5 1.2 67.8 64.9 2.7 3.7 4.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 5.3 5.4 3.9 1.4 69.3 64.7 2.9 4.1 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 4.4 4.5 0.6 1.4 69.5 65.9 2.2 3.3 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 5.9 5.9 4.7 1.4 69.1 64.5 3.2 4.5 5.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 3.7 3.8 2.8 1.4 70.0 66.2 1.4 2.5 3.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 2.4 2.2 -0.2 1.3 66.6 63.6 -0.4 0.9 2.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 5.6 5.6 5.1 1.4 69.7 65.5 3.3 4.4 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------